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Biased Information and Opinion Polarisation

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  • Suen, Richard M. H.

Abstract

Why do people form polarised opinions after receiving the same information? Why does disagreement persist even when public information is abundant? We show that a Bayesian model with potentially biased public signals can answer these questions. When agents are uncertain and disagree about the bias in the signals, persistent disagreement and opinion polarisation can readily emerge. This happens because uncertainty surrounding the bias Induces agents with diverse initial beliefs to form drastically different posterior estimates. Prolonged exposure to these signals can in some cases drive the agents' opinions further away from each other and also further away from the truth.

Suggested Citation

  • Suen, Richard M. H., 2025. "Biased Information and Opinion Polarisation," MPRA Paper 124953, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:124953
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/124953/1/MPRA_paper_124953.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    4. Aytimur, R. Emre & Suen, Richard M. H., 2024. "Information Quality, Disagreement and Political Polarisation," MPRA Paper 122695, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. , & , & ,, 2016. "Fragility of asymptotic agreement under Bayesian learning," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 11(1), January.
    6. Péter Kondor, 2012. "The More We Know about the Fundamental, the Less We Agree on the Price," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 79(3), pages 1175-1207.
    7. Annie Liang & Xiaosheng Mu, 2020. "Complementary Information and Learning Traps," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 135(1), pages 389-448.
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness

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