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Bayesian Polarization

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  • Tuval Danenberg

Abstract

We study belief polarization among Bayesian agents observing public information about a multidimensional state. Baliga et al. (2013) show that divergence in the sense of first-order stochastic dominance is impossible for one dimensional beliefs, but we find that in multidimensional settings it can occur for all marginal beliefs, even with infinitely many signals. At the same time, we extend their impossibility result: divergence in the sense of multidimensional stochastic dominance is impossible. For an intermediate stochastic order, polarization may arise only in the short-run. We provide necessary and sufficient conditions on signal structures for persistent polarization and discuss implications for polarization in actions.

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  • Tuval Danenberg, 2025. "Bayesian Polarization," Papers 2509.02513, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2509.02513
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Isaac Loh & Gregory Phelan, 2019. "Dimensionality And Disagreement: Asymptotic Belief Divergence In Response To Common Information," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 60(4), pages 1861-1876, November.
    2. T Renee Bowen & Danil Dmitriev & Simone Galperti, 2023. "Learning from Shared News: When Abundant Information Leads to Belief Polarization," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 138(2), pages 955-1000.
    3. Sandeep Baliga & Eran Hanany & Peter Klibanoff, 2013. "Polarization and Ambiguity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(7), pages 3071-3083, December.
    4. Gregory J. Martin & Ali Yurukoglu, 2017. "Bias in Cable News: Persuasion and Polarization," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(9), pages 2565-2599, September.
    5. Nimark, Kristoffer P. & Sundaresan, Savitar, 2019. "Inattention and belief polarization," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 203-228.
    6. , & , & ,, 2016. "Fragility of asymptotic agreement under Bayesian learning," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 11(1), January.
    7. Jean‐Pierre Benoît & Juan Dubra, 2019. "Apparent Bias: What Does Attitude Polarization Show?," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 60(4), pages 1675-1703, November.
    8. Matthew Rabin & Joel L. Schrag, 1999. "First Impressions Matter: A Model of Confirmatory Bias," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 114(1), pages 37-82.
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