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The More We Know about the Fundamental, the Less We Agree on the Price

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  • Péter Kondor

Abstract

I allow trading horizon heterogeneity across groups in a standard differential information model of a financial market. This approach can explain the well-established phenomenon that, after a public announcement, trading volume increases, more private information is incorporated into prices and volatility increases. In such environments, public information has the important secondary role of helping agents learn about the information of other agents. Therefore, whenever the correlation between the private information of different groups is sufficiently low, a public announcement increases disagreement among short-horizon traders regarding the expected selling price even as it decreases disagreement about the fundamental value of the asset. Additional testable implications are also suggested. Copyright , Oxford University Press.

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  • Péter Kondor, 2012. "The More We Know about the Fundamental, the Less We Agree on the Price," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 79(3), pages 1175-1207.
  • Handle: RePEc:oup:restud:v:79:y:2012:i:3:p:1175-1207
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/restud/rdr051
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Albagli, Elias, 2015. "Investment horizons and asset prices under asymmetric information," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 158(PB), pages 787-837.
    2. Kristoffer P. Nimark, 2014. "Man-Bites-Dog Business Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(8), pages 2320-2367, August.
    3. Liang, Hanchao & Yang, Chunpeng & Cai, Chuangqun, 2017. "Beauty contest, bounded rationality, and sentiment pricing dynamics," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 71-80.
    4. Kurlat, Pablo & Veldkamp, Laura, 2015. "Should we regulate financial information?," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 158(PB), pages 697-720.
    5. Jia, Xue, 2016. "On the role of information disclosures in capital markets," Other publications TiSEM 9bacfbaa-2162-49fe-92e6-5, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    6. George-Marios Angeletos & Chen Lian, 2016. "Incomplete Information in Macroeconomics: Accommodating Frictions in Coordination," NBER Working Papers 22297, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Isaac Loh & Gregory Phelan, 2016. "Dimensionality and Disagreement: Asymptotic Belief Divergence in Response to Common Information," Department of Economics Working Papers 2016-18, Department of Economics, Williams College, revised Apr 2017.
    8. Cespa, Giovanni & Vives, Xavier, 2011. "Expectations, Liquidity, and Short-term Trading," CEPR Discussion Papers 8303, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Daeyoung Jeong, 2017. "Using Cheap Talk to Polarize or Unify a Group of Decision Makers," Working Papers 2017-19, Economic Research Institute, Bank of Korea.
    10. Giovanni Cespa & Xavier Vives, 2015. "The Beauty Contest and Short-Term Trading," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 70(5), pages 2099-2154, October.
    11. Liyan Yang & Itay Goldstein, 2014. "Market Efficiency and Real Efficiency: The Connect and Disconnect via Feedback Effects," 2014 Meeting Papers 154, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    12. Han, Bing & Tang, Ya & Yang, Liyan, 2016. "Public information and uninformed trading: Implications for market liquidity and price efficiency," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 604-643.
    13. Yang, Chunpeng & Cai, Chuangqun, 2014. "Higher order expectations in sentiment asset pricing model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 95-100.
    14. Henry L. Friedman & Mirko S. Heinle, 2016. "Taste, information, and asset prices: implications for the valuation of CSR," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 21(3), pages 740-767, September.
    15. Csóka, Péter & Havran, Dániel & Váradi, Kata, 2014. "Konferencia a pénzügyi piacok likviditásáról. BCE Befektetések és Vállalati Pénzügy Tanszék-MTA KRTK Játékelméleti Kutatócsoport, Budapest, 2013. október 3-4
      [Fourth Annual Financial Market Liquidi
      ," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(3), pages 324-334.
    16. Benoît, Jean-Pierre & Dubra, Juan, 2014. "A Theory of Rational Attitude Polarization," MPRA Paper 60129, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Liyan Yang & Itay Goldstein, 2014. "Good Disclosure, Bad Disclosure," 2014 Meeting Papers 42, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    18. Liyan Yang & Itay Goldstein, 2012. "Information Diversity and Market Efficiency Spirals," 2012 Meeting Papers 349, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    19. Elías Albagli, 2013. "Investment Horizons and Asset Prices under Asymmetric Information," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 709, Central Bank of Chile.

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