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Efecto de la Oscilación del Pacífico Sur (ENSO) sobre el rendimiento del cultivo de soja en la Argentina
[Effect of the South Pacific Oscillation (ENSO) on soybean crop yield in Argentina]

Author

Listed:
  • Frank, Luis

Abstract

Climate research has associated the South Pacific Oscillation (ENSO) with the occurrence of extreme weather events in South America, such as droughts and floods. However, agronomic and economic studies show that such effects are transferred weakly to agricultural production. The paper focuses on the impact of changes in the surface temperature of the equatorial Pacific on soybean yield in the Chaco-Pampean Region of Argentina. It is based on the hypothesis that the ENSO effect is not homogeneous throughout the region, and therefore computes semi-elasticities of soybean yield with respect to oceanic temperatures for 15 zones of the Chaco-Pampean region. Additionally, proposes an aggregation scheme for these semi-elasticities useful to project the national average yield. The results confirm that the effect of ENSO on the yield of the soybean crop is not homogeneous throughout the region, despite which an increase of 7.7% in the average national yield can be expected for each additional degree on the temperature of the surface waters of the Pacific Ocean. The effect can, however, oscillate between 0 and 21% according to the zone, without a clear gradient in any direction being noticed. The paper discusses possible causes of this variability and alternatives to improve the estimation of the semi-elasticities at zonal and general level.

Suggested Citation

  • Frank, Luis, 2023. "Efecto de la Oscilación del Pacífico Sur (ENSO) sobre el rendimiento del cultivo de soja en la Argentina [Effect of the South Pacific Oscillation (ENSO) on soybean crop yield in Argentina]," MPRA Paper 117109, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:117109
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Irwin, Scott, . "The Impact of Preseason La Niña Episodes on Corn and Soybean Yields in Brazil and Argentina," farmdoc daily, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, vol. 10(213).
    2. Cabrini, Silvina & Colussi, Joana & Schnitkey, Gary, . "Third Consecutive La Niña? What to Expect from Soybean Yields in the United States, Brazil and Argentina," farmdoc daily, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, vol. 12(75).
    3. MacKinnon, James G., 2010. "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests," Queen's Economics Department Working Papers 273723, Queen's University - Department of Economics.
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    JEL classification:

    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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