تحليل أدوات السياسات المرتبطة بعرض محصولي القمح والبرسيم في مصر[Analysis of policy instruments affecting the supply of wheat and clover in Egypt]

This study dealt with the analysis of the related policies affecting the supply response of wheat and Egyptian clover (berseem) acreage in Egypt. These policies were the price policy, the policy of raising the yield (productivity) of wheat, bread price subsidy at the retail stage, foreign trade policy of wheat. In addition, the study estimated some econometric relationships between the policy variables, which included domestic price and the world price of wheat, the variables affecting the wheat profitability and berseem profitability in Egypt. The study concluded from the analysis of relations between the variables of the policies targeted modifying the prevailing competitiveness between wheat and berseem on the agricultural area produced several important results: the depreciation of the value of the Egyptian pound against the American dollar makes the growth rate in domestic wheat price to match imported wheat price to the Egyptian market would be doubled 6 times, the growth rate of world wheat price, which places a huge burden on the state to procure foreign currency and inflate the size of the funding gap. These burdens are compounded by increased imports of wheat due to population growth. Such policy would increase the subsidy burden and then social costs as the world price in US dollars has grown by about 1% a year over the four decades ago, while the exchange rate of the dollar to Egyptian pound led to make the growth rate of domestic wheat in Egyptian pounds about 6% which, will enter Egypt to fall in a dilemma of risk of enlargement of the national debt payment. Thus, despite the positive impact of increased farm price, depending on a policy of raising the price to cover the increase in the costs of production due to increase in the free agricultural input prices, monopolistic practices and fraud, with fluctuations in productivity of wheat through time, would cause burdens of distortions in the economy over the long term that might be of unbearable consequences.