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Influence of Hong Kong RMB offshore market on effectiveness of structural monetary policy in the Mainland China

Author

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  • Qin, Weiguang
  • Bhattarai, Keshab

Abstract

We find that the monetary policy in the mainland China will underestimate the volatility of major macro variables when it fails to consider the influence of capital flows to and from the Hong Kong RMB offshore market. Analyses of SVAR model reveals that the Hong Kong RMB offshore market affects money market in the mainland China through changes in the financial flows and exchange rates. In the early stage of the implementation of structural monetary policy (SMP) for macroeconomic stability, the cross-border flows of capital occurs due to changes in arbitrage behavior from the Hong Kong RMB offshore market, which affects not only money supply but also expectations of households and firms about actual interest rate and exchange rates that often produce opposite of intended effects in the price and output. Scenario one of SVAR simulations, that ignored the Hong Kong RMB offshore market came with lower volatilities of the target macro variables but the model generated values of variables did not match well to the actual data. Scenario two of the simulation of the same SVAR model including the Hong Kong RMB offshore market, had model values of model variables closely matching to the actual data though with slightly higher volatilities of those variables.

Suggested Citation

  • Qin, Weiguang & Bhattarai, Keshab, 2022. "Influence of Hong Kong RMB offshore market on effectiveness of structural monetary policy in the Mainland China," MPRA Paper 111768, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 30 Jan 2022.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:111768
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    JEL classification:

    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
    • O38 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Government Policy

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