An evaluation of social sector budgeting in Sokoto State, Nigeria

The Nigerian National Bureau of Statistics, in its 2019 Poverty and Inequality report, ranked the North Western state of Sokoto as the poorest in the country, with 87.7 percent of the population classified as poor. Given the importance of the social sector in poverty reduction, this study examines the budgeting process in Sokoto state, with a view to ascertaining the spending pattern on the social sector. Using basic autoregressive models and conducting diagnostic tests, including the CUSUM model stability test, the study found that the budget for health and water and sanitation for previous periods, have significant positive effects on the current budget. The effect is also positive for Education but not significant. Past allocations for Nutrition, Child Protection and Social Protection have significant negative effect on current provisions. This may be attributed to the fact that these budgetary allocations are designed and implemented by different institutions. Overall, past budget allocations for the social sector have significant positive effect on current provisions. This therefore means that the budget for the social sector in Sokoto state follows a consistent pattern.