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Turkiye’nin ortadogu’da ekonomik gelecegi: Turkiye’nin ihracat potansiyeline yonelik ampirik bir analiz

  • Kula, Ferit
  • Aslan, Alper

Ortadoğu, hem dinlerin kesişme noktası olması hem de petrol zenginliği nedeniyle yıllar boyunca egemenlik mücadelelerine sahne olmuş ve bu nedenle de istikrarsızlaşmış bir bölgedir. Petrolün 20.yüzyılda enerji kaynağı olarak kömürün yerini alması nedeniyle, bölge tüm dünyanın ilgisini uyandırmaya başlamıştır. Sovyetler Birliği’nin dağılmasının ve Irak Savaşı’nın ardından, bölgede ABD’nin gücü artan şekilde hissedilmeye başlamıştır. Bölgenin istikrarsız siyasi yapısı nedeniyle ham petrol varil fiyatlarında ortaya çıkan dalgalanmalar, hem dünya ekonomisini hem de Türkiye’yi olumsuz etkilemiştir. Ayrıca Irak örneğinde açıkça görüldüğü gibi (Kerkük-Yumurtalık petrol boru hattı sorunu, BM ambargosu, Irak tarafından yapılan ödemelerin zaman zaman durdurulması) Türkiye’nin bölge ülkeleri ile ikili ekonomik ilişkilerinde önemli aksaklıklar yaşanmaktadır. Oysaki Ortadoğu bölgesinde kalıcı bir barış ve istikrar, Türkiye ekonomisini olumlu yönde etkileyecektir. Özellikle bölgenin yeniden yapılanması ve petrol gelirlerinin artması sürecinde, Türkiye ile bölge arasındaki ticari ilişkilerde ciddi bir artış potansiyeli bulunaktadır. Bu araştırma, Türkiye’nin 1996–2005 döneminde bölgeye yaptığı ihracat verilerinden faydalanarak, Türkiye açısından bölgenin ne oranda bir ihracat potansiyeline sahip olduğunu ortaya koymayı amaçlamaktadır. Araştırmada bölge ile Türkiye arasındaki ihracat potansiyeli “gravite modeli” (gravity model) ile tahmin edilmiştir. Araştırmada ilk olarak Ortadoğu ile bir taraftan Türkiye ve diğer taraftan dünya arasındaki ticari ilişkiler hakkında istatistiksel bilgilere yer verilmiştir. Daha sonra ise kullanılan yönteme ilişkin literatür yer almaktadır. Son olarak ise, yapılan ekonometrik analizin sonuçları değerlendirilmiştir.

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File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/10688/1/MPRA_paper_10688.pdf
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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 10688.

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Date of creation: 2008
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:10688
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