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Convergence et optimalité de la zone ECO : une analyse par un modèle de mélange
[Convergence and optimality of the ECO zone: an analysis by a mixture model]

Author

Listed:
  • TOGBENU, Fo-Kossi Edem
  • KONDO TOKPOVI, Vénunyé Claude
  • SAWSSEN, benameur

Abstract

Our study examines the progress made by ECOWAS member countries in creating a single currency. It therefore analyses what the last few years have taught us about the convergence and optimality of the ECOWAS zone based on a Mixture Model approach to classification. The variables used come from the theory of optimal currency zones and convergence criteria. Two periods were considered: 2000-2013 and 2014-2018. Our results show remarkable progress in the convergence of ECOWAS countries. The results for the 2014-2018 period show very little heterogeneity in the ECOWAS countries compared to the results of the previous period. Indeed, the number of classes resulting from this analysis is nine for the first period and two for the second period. The results therefore suggest that a monetary union is possible for ECOWAS countries except Liberia and Nigeria.

Suggested Citation

  • TOGBENU, Fo-Kossi Edem & KONDO TOKPOVI, Vénunyé Claude & SAWSSEN, benameur, 2021. "Convergence et optimalité de la zone ECO : une analyse par un modèle de mélange [Convergence and optimality of the ECO zone: an analysis by a mixture model]," MPRA Paper 106805, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:106805
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Emilie Laffiteau & Rokiatou Samaké-Konaté, 2016. "La monnaie commune au sein de la CEDEAO : enseignements d’une analyse en cluster," Revue d’économie du développement, De Boeck Université, vol. 24(1), pages 99-119.
    2. Kindleberger, Charles P, 1986. "International Public Good without International Government," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(1), pages 1-13, March.
    3. Tsangarides, Charalambos G. & Qureshi, Mahvash Saeed, 2008. "Monetary Union Membership in West Africa: A Cluster Analysis," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 36(7), pages 1261-1279, July.
    4. Xavier Debrun & Paul Masson & Catherine Pattillo, 2005. "Monetary union in West Africa: who might gain, who might lose, and why?," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(2), pages 454-481, May.
    5. Houssa, Romain, 2008. "Monetary union in West Africa and asymmetric shocks: A dynamic structural factor model approach," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(1-2), pages 319-347, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    JEL classification:

    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
    • E0 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General
    • E00 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - General

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