Common Learning with Intertemporal Dependence
Consider two agents who learn the value of an unknown parameter by observing a sequence of private signals. Will the agents commonly learn the value of the parameter, i.e., will the true value of the parameter become approximate common-knowledge? If the signals are independent and identically distributed across time (but not necessarily across agents), the answer is yes (Cripps, Ely, Mailath, and Samuelson, 2008). This paper explores the implications of allowing the signals to be dependent over time. We present a counterexample showing that even extremely simple time dependence can preclude common learning, and present sufficient conditions for common learning.
|Date of creation:||11 May 2011|
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- Martin W. Cripps & Jeffrey C. Ely & George J. Mailath & Larry Samuelson, 2006.
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
1575, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Martin W. Cripps & Jeffrey C. Ely & George J. Mailath & Larry Samuelson, 2007. "Common Learning," PIER Working Paper Archive 07-018, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
- Martin W. Cripps & Jeffrey C. Ely & George J. Mailath & Larry Samuelson, 2006. "Common Learning," Levine's Bibliography 321307000000000355, UCLA Department of Economics.
- Martin W. Cripps & Jeffrey C. Ely & George J. Mailath & Larry Samuelson, 2006. "Common Learning," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1575R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Jun 2007.
- Stephen Morris, 1999.
"Approximate common knowledge revisited,"
International Journal of Game Theory,
Springer;Game Theory Society, vol. 28(3), pages 385-408.
- Morris, S., 1999. "Approximate Common Knowledge Revisited," Papers 987r, Yale - Economic Growth Center.
- Stephen Morris, "undated". "Approximate Common Knowledge Revisited," Penn CARESS Working Papers 6be11f49fbded40b2a623aebf, Penn Economics Department.
- Stephen Morris, "undated". ""Approximate Common Knowledge Revisited''," CARESS Working Papres 96-06, University of Pennsylvania Center for Analytic Research and Economics in the Social Sciences.
- Steiner, Jakub & Stewart, Colin, 2011.
"Communication, timing, and common learning,"
Journal of Economic Theory,
Elsevier, vol. 146(1), pages 230-247, January.
- Jakub Steiner & Colin Stewart, 2010. "Communication, Timing, and Common Learning," Working Papers tecipa-389, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
- Jakub Steiner & Colin Stewart, 2010. "Communication, Timing, and Common Learning," Discussion Papers 1484, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
- Rubinstein, Ariel, 1989. "The Electronic Mail Game: Strategic Behavior under "Almost Common Knowledge."," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(3), pages 385-391, June.
- Monderer, Dov & Samet, Dov, 1989. "Approximating common knowledge with common beliefs," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 1(2), pages 170-190, June.
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