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Common learning with intertemporal dependence

  • Martin Cripps


  • Jeffrey Ely


  • George Mailath


  • Larry Samuelson


Consider two agents who learn the value of an unknown parameter by observing a sequence of private signals. Will the agents commonly learn the value of the parameter, i.e., will the true value of the parameter become approximate common-knowledge? If the signals are independent and identically distributed across time (but not necessarily across agents), the answer is yes (Cripps et al., Econometrica, 76(4):909–933, 2008 ). This paper explores the implications of allowing the signals to be dependent over time. We present a counterexample showing that even extremely simple time dependence can preclude common learning, and present sufficient conditions for common learning. Copyright Springer-Verlag 2013

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Article provided by Springer in its journal International Journal of Game Theory.

Volume (Year): 42 (2013)
Issue (Month): 1 (February)
Pages: 55-98

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Handle: RePEc:spr:jogath:v:42:y:2013:i:1:p:55-98
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  1. Steiner, Jakub & Stewart, Colin, 2011. "Communication, timing, and common learning," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 146(1), pages 230-247, January.
  2. Martin W. Cripps & Jeffrey C. Ely & George J. Mailath & Larry Samuelson, 2006. "Common Learning," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1575, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    • Martin W. Cripps & Jeffrey C. Ely & George J. Mailath & Larry Samuelson, 2008. "Common Learning," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 76(4), pages 909-933, 07.
  3. Rubinstein, Ariel, 1989. "The Electronic Mail Game: Strategic Behavior under "Almost Common Knowledge."," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(3), pages 385-91, June.
  4. Stephen Morris, 1999. "Approximate common knowledge revisited," International Journal of Game Theory, Springer, vol. 28(3), pages 385-408.
  5. Monderer, Dov & Samet, Dov, 1989. "Approximating common knowledge with common beliefs," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 1(2), pages 170-190, June.
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