IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pav/demwpp/demwp0154.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Unmoored expectations and the price puzzle

Author

Listed:
  • Anna Florio

    () (Department of Management, Economics and Industrial Engineering, Politecnico di Milano)

Abstract

We explore the possibility that the price puzzle - the positive response of prices to a negative monetary policy shock- arises in the presence of unmoored expectations. Looking at the pre-Great Recession period, employing a VAR analysis, we compare the behavior of prices after a monetary policy shock in countries with clearly defined nominal anchors (Canada, New Zealand, Sweden, United Kingdom, Switzerland and EMU) to their behavior in countries that, at that time, did not possess any such anchor (Japan and United States). While in this last group we find evidence of a price puzzle, in the first, starting from the period when this anchor was set, we do not find such a perverse dynamic. We argue that those countries characterised by clearly defined nominal anchors, having anchored inflation expectations, have managed to rule out the persistent increase in the price level.

Suggested Citation

  • Anna Florio, 2018. "Unmoored expectations and the price puzzle," DEM Working Papers Series 154, University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Management.
    • Handle: RePEc:pav:demwpp:demwp0154
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://dem-web.unipv.it/web/docs/dipeco/quad/ps/RePEc/pav/demwpp/DEMWP0154.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 115(1), pages 147-180.
    2. Jean Boivin & Marc P. Giannoni & Ilian Mihov, 2009. "Sticky Prices and Monetary Policy: Evidence from Disaggregated US Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(1), pages 350-384, March.
    3. Warne, Anders & Coenen, Günter & Christoffel, Kai, 2008. "The new area-wide model of the euro area: a micro-founded open-economy model for forecasting and policy analysis," Working Paper Series 944, European Central Bank.
    4. Alan S. Blinder & Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Jakob De Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2008. "Central Bank Communication and Monetary Policy: A Survey of Theory and Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 46(4), pages 910-945, December.
    5. Riccardo DiCecio & Edward Nelson, 2007. "An estimated DSGE model for the United Kingdom," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 89(Jul), pages 215-232.
    6. Leeper, Eric M., 1991. "Equilibria under 'active' and 'passive' monetary and fiscal policies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 129-147, February.
    7. Meredith J. Beechey & Benjamin K. Johannsen & Andrew T. Levin, 2011. "Are Long-Run Inflation Expectations Anchored More Firmly in the Euro Area Than in the United States?," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 104-129, April.
    8. Refet S. Gürkaynak & Brian Sack & Eric Swanson, 2005. "The Sensitivity of Long-Term Interest Rates to Economic News: Evidence and Implications for Macroeconomic Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 425-436, March.
    9. Refet S Gürkaynak & Andrew Levin & Eric Swanson, 2010. "Does Inflation Targeting Anchor Long-Run Inflation Expectations? Evidence from the U.S., UK, and Sweden," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 8(6), pages 1208-1242, December.
    10. Thapar, Aditi, 2008. "Using private forecasts to estimate the effects of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(4), pages 806-824, May.
    11. Sims, Christopher A., 1992. "Interpreting the macroeconomic time series facts : The effects of monetary policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 975-1000, June.
    12. Giordani, Paolo, 2004. "An alternative explanation of the price puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(6), pages 1271-1296, September.
    13. Hofmann, Boris & Peersman, Gert & Straub, Roland, 2012. "Time variation in U.S. wage dynamics," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(8), pages 769-783.
    14. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 2005. "Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(1), pages 1-45, February.
    15. anonymous, 1994. "Study examines future of European Monetary Union," Economics Update, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issue Apr, pages 1-6.
    16. Alan S. Blinder & Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Jakob De Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2008. "Central Bank Communication and Monetary Policy: A Survey of Theory and Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 46(4), pages 910-945, December.
    17. Efrem Castelnuovo & Paolo Surico, 2010. "Monetary Policy, Inflation Expectations and The Price Puzzle," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 120(549), pages 1262-1283, December.
    18. repec:pri:cepsud:161blinder is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Belaygorod, Anatoliy & Dueker, Michael, 2009. "Indeterminacy, change points and the price puzzle in an estimated DSGE model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 624-648, March.
    20. ., 1994. "Monetary Theory," Chapters, in: Geoffrey M. Hodgson & Warren J. Samuels & Marc R. Tool (ed.), The Elgar Companion to Institutional and Evolutionary Economics, volume 0, chapter 107, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    21. Hanson, Michael S., 2004. "The "price puzzle" reconsidered," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(7), pages 1385-1413, October.
    22. Milcheva, Stanimira, 2013. "A bank lending channel or a credit supply shock?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 314-332.
    23. Rabanal, Pau, 2007. "Does inflation increase after a monetary policy tightening? Answers based on an estimated DSGE model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 906-937, March.
    24. Anonymous, 1994. "Monetary Policy Statement, December 1994," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 57, December.
    25. Anonymous, 1994. "Six monthly Monetary Policy Statement June 1994," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 57, June.
    26. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2003. "An Estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model of the Euro Area," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(5), pages 1123-1175, September.
    27. Romer, Christina D. & Romer, David H., 1994. "Monetary policy matters," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 75-88, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Florio, Anna, 2018. "Nominal anchors and the price puzzle," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 224-237.
    2. Marek Rusnak & Tomas Havranek & Roman Horvath, 2013. "How to Solve the Price Puzzle? A Meta-Analysis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(1), pages 37-70, February.
    3. Kapinos, Pavel, 2011. "Forward-looking monetary policy and anticipated shocks to inflation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 620-633.
    4. Boivin, Jean & Kiley, Michael T. & Mishkin, Frederic S., 2010. "How Has the Monetary Transmission Mechanism Evolved Over Time?," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 8, pages 369-422, Elsevier.
    5. Muhanji, Stella & Malikane, Christopher & Ojah, Kalu, 2013. "Price and liquidity puzzles of a monetary shock: Evidence from indebted African economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 620-630.
    6. Reusens Peter & Croux Christophe, 2017. "Detecting time variation in the price puzzle: a less informative prior choice for time varying parameter VAR models," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 21(4), pages 1-18, September.
    7. Hubert, Paul & Maule, Becky, 2016. "Policy and macro signals as inputs to inflation expectation formation," Bank of England working papers 581, Bank of England.
    8. Stelios D. Bekiros & Alessia Paccagnini, 2016. "Policy‐Oriented Macroeconomic Forecasting with Hybrid DGSE and Time‐Varying Parameter VAR Models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(7), pages 613-632, November.
    9. Bjørnland, Hilde C. & Leitemo, Kai, 2009. "Identifying the interdependence between US monetary policy and the stock market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 275-282, March.
    10. Bekiros Stelios & Paccagnini Alessia, 2015. "Estimating point and density forecasts for the US economy with a factor-augmented vector autoregressive DSGE model," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 19(2), pages 107-136, April.
    11. Smith, A. Lee, 2016. "When does the cost channel pose a challenge to inflation targeting central banks?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 471-494.
    12. Hilde C. Bjørnland, 2005. "Monetary policy and the illusionary exchange rate puzzle," Working Paper 2005/11, Norges Bank.
    13. Bekiros, Stelios D. & Paccagnini, Alessia, 2014. "Bayesian forecasting with small and medium scale factor-augmented vector autoregressive DSGE models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 298-323.
    14. Paul Hubert, 2015. "ECB Projections as a Tool for Understanding Policy Decisions," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(7), pages 574-587, November.
    15. Giovanni Nicolo, 2020. "Monetary Policy, Self-Fulfilling Expectations and the U.S. Business Cycle," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-035, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    16. De Luigi, Clara & Huber, Florian, 2018. "Debt regimes and the effectiveness of monetary policy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 218-238.
    17. Tim Willems, 2020. "What Do Monetary Contractions Do? Evidence From Large Tightenings," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 38, pages 41-58, October.
    18. Adnan Haider Bukhari & Safdar Ullah Khan, 2008. "A Small Open Economy DSGE Model for Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 47(4), pages 963-1008.
    19. Jérôme Héricourt & Iuliana Matei, 2007. "Transmission de la politique monétaire dans les pays d'E urope centrale et orientale : que savons-nous vraiment ?," Economie & Prévision, La Documentation Française, vol. 0(4), pages 221-238.
    20. Jean Boivin & Marc P. Giannoni, 2006. "Has Monetary Policy Become More Effective?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(3), pages 445-462, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    VAR; Price Puzzle; Monetary Policy Shocks.;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pav:demwpp:demwp0154. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Alice Albonico) The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask Alice Albonico to update the entry or send us the correct email address. General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dppavit.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.