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Política fiscal y gasto social en el Perú: Cuánto se ha avanzado y qué más se puede hacer para reducir la vulnerabilidad de los hogares

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  • Juan F. Castro

    (Universidad del Pacífico)

Abstract

Esta investigación analiza la relación existente entre la cobertura del gasto social y la política fiscal durante las distintas fases del ciclo económico, y aporta evidencia respecto a los determinantes de la vulnerabilidad de las familias peruanas. La evidencia analizada para el período 1994-2004 muestra que la relación positiva entre el gasto fiscal total y el producto no solo ha impedido mantener la participación del gasto social en el PBI durante los episodios de recesión, sino que lleva a que el gasto social por pobre se reduzca en más de 4% por cada punto porcentual de caída en el PBI per cápita. Por lo mismo, existe aún un espacio importante para mejorar la oportunidad del gasto social por medio de la implementación de una regla fiscal contracíclica. Si bien esta regla contribuiría a proteger la cobertura del gasto social y a proveer de una adecuada red de protección para la población pobre durante los períodos de recesión, esta resuelve solo parte del problema. La evidencia empírica sobre la relación existente entre la evolución del consumo y las variaciones en el ingreso de las familias revela que los hogares pobres enfrentan severas restricciones para acceder a mecanismos que les permitan suavizar su consumo frente a distintos estados de la naturaleza, y que los programas sociales ahora en marcha contribuyen solo marginalmente a aliviar estas diferencias. Por lo mismo, la implementación de una regla contracíclica debe venir acompañada de un gasto social que provea un mayor acceso a los activos que facilitan las posibilidades de suavizar el consumo, de modo que las familias puedan alcanzar y, sobre todo, asegurar un nivel de gasto que les permita escapar de manera permanente de la pobreza. Al respecto, la evidencia empírica revela que tanto el acceso a una mejor dotación de capital humano (por medio de la educación) como a transferencias del exterior juegan un papel importante como mecanismos para asegurar el consumo.

Suggested Citation

  • Juan F. Castro, 2006. "Política fiscal y gasto social en el Perú: Cuánto se ha avanzado y qué más se puede hacer para reducir la vulnerabilidad de los hogares," Working Papers 06-05, Centro de Investigación, Universidad del Pacífico.
    • Handle: RePEc:pai:wpaper:06-05
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Skoufias, Emmanuel & Quisumbing, Agnes R., 2004. "Consumption insurance and vulnerability to poverty : a synthesis of the evidence from Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Mali, Mexico and Russia," Social Protection Discussion Papers and Notes 29141, The World Bank.
    2. Kraay, Aart, 2004. "When is growth pro-poor? Cross-country evidence," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3225, The World Bank.
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    4. Ferreira, Francisco & Prennushi, Giovanna & Ravallion, Martin, 1999. "Protecting the poor from macroeconomic shocks," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2160, The World Bank.
    5. Martin Ravallion & Shubham Chaudhuri, 1997. "Risk and Insurance in Village India: Comment," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(1), pages 171-184, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Juan F. Castro & Jessica Baca & Juan P. Ocampo, 2012. "(Re)Counting the Poor in Peru: A Multidimensional Approach," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 49(1), pages 37-65, May.
    2. Gustavo Yamada & Juan Francisco Castro, 2007. "Poverty, inequality, and social policies in Peru: As poor as it gets," Working Papers 07-06, Centro de Investigación, Universidad del Pacífico.

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