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Patent Acquisitions under Uncertainty: The Case of Requests for Examination

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  • Masayo Kani

    () (Graduate School of Economics, Osaka University)

Abstract

Under the Japanese patent system, an applicant has to request examination within a given period of time after application. This paper studies the timing of a request for examination when return on patent is uncertain. When a firm files a patent application, it acquires a timing option limited for a fixed period and can exercise it at anytime. After modeling a real options model of the request for examination, we estimate it based on micro patent application data. The paper finds that the request for examination is deferred when uncertainty increases. We also find that the probability of requesting examination rises as the time limit approaches since the option value declines with time and falls down to zero at the time limit.

Suggested Citation

  • Masayo Kani, 2007. "Patent Acquisitions under Uncertainty: The Case of Requests for Examination," Discussion Papers in Economics and Business 07-06, Osaka University, Graduate School of Economics and Osaka School of International Public Policy (OSIPP).
  • Handle: RePEc:osk:wpaper:0706
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    File URL: http://www2.econ.osaka-u.ac.jp/library/global/dp/0706.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kazuo Ogawa & Kazuyuki Suzuki, 2000. "Uncertainty and Investment: Some Evidence from the Panel Data of Japanese Manufacturing Firms," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 51(2), pages 170-192, June.
    2. Pakes, Ariel S, 1986. "Patents as Options: Some Estimates of the Value of Holding European Patent Stocks," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(4), pages 755-784, July.
    3. Cameron,A. Colin & Trivedi,Pravin K., 2008. "Microeconometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9787111235767.
    4. James L. Paddock & Daniel R. Siegel & James L. Smith, 1988. "Option Valuation of Claims on Real Assets: The Case of Offshore Petroleum Leases," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 103(3), pages 479-508.
    5. Mario Cleves & William W. Gould & Roberto G. Gutierrez & Yulia Marchenko, 2010. "An Introduction to Survival Analysis Using Stata," Stata Press books, StataCorp LP, edition 3, number saus3, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    patent; request for examination; real options; and duration analysis;

    JEL classification:

    • C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies
    • L21 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - Business Objectives of the Firm
    • O34 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Intellectual Property and Intellectual Capital

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