Patent Acquisitions under Uncertainty: The Case of Requests for Examination
Under the Japanese patent system, an applicant has to request examination within a given period of time after application. This paper studies the timing of a request for examination when return on patent is uncertain. When a firm files a patent application, it acquires a timing option limited for a fixed period and can exercise it at anytime. After modeling a real options model of the request for examination, we estimate it based on micro patent application data. The paper finds that the request for examination is deferred when uncertainty increases. We also find that the probability of requesting examination rises as the time limit approaches since the option value declines with time and falls down to zero at the time limit.
|Date of creation:||Feb 2007|
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www2.econ.osaka-u.ac.jp/library/global/e_HP/e_g_shiryo.html|
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- Kazuo Ogawa & Kazuyuki Suzuki, 2000.
"Uncertainty and Investment: Some Evidence from the Panel Data of Japanese Manufacturing Firms,"
The Japanese Economic Review,
Japanese Economic Association, vol. 51(2), pages 170-192, 06.
- Ogawa, K & Suzuki, K, 1997. "Uncertainty and Investment : Some Evidence from the Panel Data of Japanese Manufacturing Firms," ISER Discussion Paper 0436, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
- Pakes, Ariel S, 1986. "Patents as Options: Some Estimates of the Value of Holding European Patent Stocks," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(4), pages 755-784, July.
- Ariel Pakes, 1984. "Patents as Options: Some Estimates of the Value of Holding European Patent Stocks," NBER Working Papers 1340, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Cameron,A. Colin & Trivedi,Pravin K., 2005. "Microeconometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521848053, December.
- James L. Paddock & Daniel R. Siegel & James L. Smith, 1988. "Option Valuation of Claims on Real Assets: The Case of Offshore Petroleum Leases," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 103(3), pages 479-508.
- Mario Cleves & William W. Gould & Roberto G. Gutierrez & Yulia Marchenko, 2010. "An Introduction to Survival Analysis Using Stata," Stata Press books, StataCorp LP, edition 3, number saus3, October. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
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