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The Pulpit and the Polls: The Electoral Impact of Religious Participation

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  • Cools, Angela
  • Moreno-Medina, Jonathan

    (University of Texas at San Antonio)

  • Sheng, Sam

Abstract

We estimate how exposure to religious services affects U.S. voting. Novel sermon corpora show a sharp spike in political content on the Sunday before presidential elections. Exploiting quasi-random rainfall during typical service hours before elections—Precipitation at Time of Church (PTC)—and controlling for election day and weekly precipitation, a one–standard deviation increase in PTC lowers county Republican vote share by 0.6 percentage points. The effect is driven by reduced Republican turnout. Individual-level estimates confirm that effects concentrate among church-attending Christians—particularly White Evangelicals—and are absent for non-churchgoers who face the same weather, consistent with church-based mobilization.

Suggested Citation

  • Cools, Angela & Moreno-Medina, Jonathan & Sheng, Sam, 2026. "The Pulpit and the Polls: The Electoral Impact of Religious Participation," SocArXiv ahky7_v1, Center for Open Science.
    • Handle: RePEc:osf:socarx:ahky7_v1
    DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/ahky7_v1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hungerman, Daniel & Rinz, Kevin & Weninger, Tim & Yoon, Chungeun, 2018. "Political campaigns and church contributions," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 155(C), pages 403-426.
    2. Giulia Buccione & Brian G. Knight, 2024. "The Rise of the Religious Right: Evidence from the Moral Majority and the Jimmy Carter Presidency," NBER Working Papers 32551, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Cools, Angela, 2025. "Faith and philanthropy: Megachurch scandals and charitable giving," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 238(C).
    4. Bottan, Nicolas L. & Perez-Truglia, Ricardo, 2015. "Losing my religion: The effects of religious scandals on religious participation and charitable giving," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 106-119.
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