The cost of Germany's nuclear power phase-out, Atomausstieg: Additional Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Illness and Deaths

Atomausstieg is Germany’s policy of moving away from nuclear power. A total of 17 nuclear power plants (NPPs) have been phased out since 2011. In this work we analyze the environmental and public health costs of Atomausstieg using hourly electricity generation data. The costs are quantified in two ways: estimated avoidable $CO_{2}$ emissions and estimated number of avoidable deaths and illness from air pollution. We find that the shutdown of NPPs led to an increase in avoidable carbon emissions and an increase in avoidable deaths and illnesses from air pollution derived from additional coal use. Without Atomausstieg, Germany could have avoided 230 million tons of $CO_{2}eq$ emissions, 5,800 deaths, nearly 55,900 severe illnesses and 3.29 million minor illnesses linked to air pollution. We also find that without the shutdowns, the average carbon intensity of the German grid would have decreased 48\%{} relative to current levels, and the share of electricity from fossil fuels would have been 26.6\%{} instead of the 46.92\%{} reported for 2023. Our study highlights the unintended effects of misguided energy and environmental policies that prioritized nuclear power plant decommissioning, with valuable insights for other countries considering shutting down their nuclear energy programs.