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Deuda Pública en Latinoamérica y propuestas del Banco Mundial

Author

Listed:
  • Espinoza, Jorge Luis Vargas
  • Vásquez, Humberto Escudero
  • Velásquez, Wily Leopoldo Velásquez
  • Velásquez, Zulema Velásquez
  • Turpo, Giovana Araseli Flores

Abstract

Entre 1998 y 2002, que se ha caracterizado como la "media década perdida", la deuda pública aumentó significativamente en varios países de América Latina. En promedio, la participación de la deuda pública del gobierno aumentó en 35,7%-50.5% del PIB al mismo tiempo que se revirtió el ciclo macroeconómico, excluyendo a Nicaragua. La situación ilustra la vulnerabilidad recurrente de las finanzas públicas latinoamericanas: cuando los flujos de capital caen abruptamente, la necesidad del sector público se contrae. Además del default de Argentina y la reestructuración de la deuda pública externa de Uruguay, muchos otros países latinoamericanos han tenido serios problemas de liquidez en estos años, sin emisión de bonos gubernamentales durante la mayor parte de 2002. ¿Era posible prever esta situación? Probablemente sí, porque las finanzas públicas se volvieron muy vulnerables a la situación por la combinación de una gran deuda externa de corto plazo y tipos de cambio fijos o sobrevaluados. Sin duda, la evaluación de la sostenibilidad de la deuda no puede desligarse de la capacidad de generación de divisas del país y de la racionalidad de los regímenes cambiarios vigentes. Aunque muchos países hicieron esfuerzos significativos para reducir la deuda a principios de la década de 1990, una combinación de altas tasas de interés (principalmente debido a la inestabilidad del mercado crediticio y el sesgo procíclico en las instituciones de crédito), la evaluación del riesgo país y la apreciación del tipo de cambio en los casos en que los cambios en la deuda significa un componente externo importante, y las recesiones económicas tuvieron consecuencias devastadoras para las finanzas públicas. En varios países, el presupuesto fiscal está atrapado en la dinámica explosiva del crecimiento de la deuda, un proceso similar a una bola de nieve, en el que el servicio de la deuda suele consumir una parte cada vez mayor de los ingresos financieros públicos. El lento crecimiento económico y el debilitamiento de las principales monedas nacionales debido a la deuda dolarizada han jugado un papel dominante en las crisis recientes. Gran parte de esta bola de nieve proviene del llamado "pecado original" , definido como la incapacidad de un país en desarrollo para endeudarse en el exterior en su propia moneda o para endeudarse a largo plazo incluso en los mercados internos. Los mercados financieros imperfectos se caracterizan por vulnerabilidades estructurales resultantes de las diferencias de moneda (cuando los proyectos que producen recursos en moneda nacional se financian en moneda extranjera) y el descalce de plazos (cuando los proyectos de largo plazo se financian con préstamos de corto plazo). El “pecado original” explica así el “miedo a volar” que era un comportamiento típico de las autoridades en la década de 1990 (Calvo y Reinhart, 2002). Sin embargo, la volatilidad del tipo de cambio era inevitable y provoca fuertes efectos riqueza cuando existen diferencias de moneda entre activos y pasivos, aumentando el riesgo de incumplimiento del sector público y limitando seriamente la efectividad de la política monetaria (Céspedes, Chang y Velasco, 2004).

Suggested Citation

  • Espinoza, Jorge Luis Vargas & Vásquez, Humberto Escudero & Velásquez, Wily Leopoldo Velásquez & Velásquez, Zulema Velásquez & Turpo, Giovana Araseli Flores, 2022. "Deuda Pública en Latinoamérica y propuestas del Banco Mundial," OSF Preprints g2y7v, Center for Open Science.
  • Handle: RePEc:osf:osfxxx:g2y7v
    DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/g2y7v
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