IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/old/dpaper/445.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Are National Climate Change Mitigation Pledges Shaped by Citizens' Climate Action Preferences? Evidence from Globally Representative Data

Author

Listed:
  • Heinz Welsch

    (Universiy of Oldenburg, Department of Economics)

Abstract

The Paris Agreement on Climate Change requests signatory countries to specify voluntary caps on their greenhouse gas emissions. The caps stated by the end of 2021 imply percentage emission reductions that vary widely across countries. This paper uses globally representative data from the Global Climate Change Survey to study how countries’ emission reduction pledges are related to climate action preferences of their respective citizens. The study finds the following: (1) Nations’ percentage reduction pledges (PRPs) are not significantly related to citizens’ mean national willingness to contribute (WTC) to climate change mitigation. (2) WTC and PRPs are linked to key country characteristics in diametrically opposite ways. Specifically, (2a) WTC is positively related to average annual temperatures and negatively related to per-capita income and per-capita emissions, whereas (2b) PRPs are negatively related to average annual temperature and positively related to per-capita income and per-capita emissions. (3) Measures of divergence between PRPs and WTC are negatively related to citizens’ satisfaction with democracy. Assuming that temperatures, per-capita income, and per-capita emissions indicate sensitivity to climate change, adaptive capacity, and mitigation costs, respectively, finding (2a) is consistent with standard cost-benefit considerations. Assuming that per-capita emissions and per-capita income indicate “Differentiated Responsibilities and Respective Capabilities†, finding (2b) is consistent with ethical principles of equity and fairness. Considering right-wing populists’ using climate change as a political battleground, finding (3) suggests the possibility that ambitious mitigation targets may backfire by fuelling support for anti-climate populist parties – a political- economy tragedy of the commons.

Suggested Citation

  • Heinz Welsch, 2024. "Are National Climate Change Mitigation Pledges Shaped by Citizens' Climate Action Preferences? Evidence from Globally Representative Data," Working Papers V-445-24, University of Oldenburg, Department of Economics, revised Jul 2024.
    • Handle: RePEc:old:dpaper:445
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.uni-oldenburg.de/fileadmin/user_upload/wire/fachgebiete/vwl/V-445-24.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2024
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robert A. Huber & Lukas Fesenfeld & Thomas Bernauer, 2020. "Political populism, responsiveness, and public support for climate mitigation," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(3), pages 373-386, March.
    2. Farrow, Katherine & Grolleau, Gilles & Ibanez, Lisette, 2017. "Social Norms and Pro-environmental Behavior: A Review of the Evidence," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 1-13.
    3. Pan, Xunzhang & Elzen, Michel den & Höhne, Niklas & Teng, Fei & Wang, Lining, 2017. "Exploring fair and ambitious mitigation contributions under the Paris Agreement goals," Environmental Science & Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 49-56.
    4. Barry Eichengreen & Orkun Saka & Cevat Giray Aksoy, 2024. "The Political Scar of Epidemics," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 134(660), pages 1683-1700.
    5. Michael Lewis-Beck & Mary Stegmaier, 2013. "The VP-function revisited: a survey of the literature on vote and popularity functions after over 40 years," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 157(3), pages 367-385, December.
    6. Michalena, Evanthie & Kouloumpis, Viktor & Hills, Jeremy M., 2018. "Challenges for Pacific Small Island Developing States in achieving their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC)," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 508-518.
    7. Welsch, Heinz, 2020. "Moral Foundations and Voluntary Public Good Provision: The Case of Climate Change," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 175(C).
    8. Francesco Vona, 2019. "Job losses and political acceptability of climate policies: why the ‘job-killing’ argument is so persistent and how to overturn it," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(4), pages 524-532, April.
    9. Matthew J. Hornsey & Emily A. Harris & Paul G. Bain & Kelly S. Fielding, 2016. "Meta-analyses of the determinants and outcomes of belief in climate change," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 6(6), pages 622-626, June.
    10. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/6d7es28iae9pjoil7092hs41h3 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Ben Lockwood & Matthew Lockwood, 2022. "How Do Right-Wing Populist Parties Influence Climate and Renewable Energy Policies? Evidence from OECD Countries," Global Environmental Politics, MIT Press, vol. 22(3), pages 12-37, Summer.
    12. Peter Andre & Teodora Boneva & Felix Chopra & Armin Falk, 2024. "Globally representative evidence on the actual and perceived support for climate action," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 14(3), pages 253-259, March.
    13. Chunark, Puttipong & Limmeechokchai, Bundit & Fujimori, Shinichiro & Masui, Toshihiko, 2017. "Renewable energy achievements in CO2 mitigation in Thailand's NDCs," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 114(PB), pages 1294-1305.
    14. Farrow, Katherine & Grolleau, Gilles & Ibanez, Lisette, 2017. "Social Norms and Pro-environmental Behavior: A Review of the Evidence," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 1-13.
    15. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/6d7es28iae9pjoil7092hs41h3 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Heinz Welsch, 2022. "What Shapes Satisfaction with Democracy? Interests, Morals, and the German East–West Divide," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 163(1), pages 197-217, August.
    17. Udo Ebert & Heinz Welsch, 2012. "Adaptation and Mitigation in Global Pollution Problems: Economic Impacts of Productivity, Sensitivity, and Adaptive Capacity," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 52(1), pages 49-64, May.
    18. Andreoni, James, 1988. "Privately provided public goods in a large economy: The limits of altruism," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 57-73, February.
    19. Pieter Pauw & Kennedy Mbeva & Harro Asselt, 2019. "Subtle differentiation of countries’ responsibilities under the Paris Agreement," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 5(1), pages 1-7, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Welsch, Heinz, 2021. "How climate-friendly behavior relates to moral identity and identity-protective cognition: Evidence from the European social surveys," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 185(C).
    2. Welsch, Heinz, 2022. "Do social norms trump rational choice in voluntary climate change mitigation? Multi-country evidence of social tipping points," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    3. Phu Nguyen-Van & Anne Stenger & Tuyen Tiet, 2021. "Social incentive factors in interventions promoting sustainable behaviors: A meta-analysis," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(12), pages 1-27, December.
    4. Chamila R. Perera & Hassan Kalantari & Lester W. Johnson, 2022. "Climate Change Beliefs, Personal Environmental Norms and Environmentally Conscious Behaviour Intention," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-15, February.
    5. Welsch, Heinz, 2020. "Moral Foundations and Voluntary Public Good Provision: The Case of Climate Change," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 175(C).
    6. Ferrara, Ida & Missios, Paul, 2024. "Does waste management policy crowd out social and moral motives for recycling?," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    7. Blankenberg, Ann-Kathrin & Alhusen, Harm, 2019. "On the determinants of pro-environmental behavior: A literature review and guide for the empirical economist," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 350, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics, revised 2019.
    8. Mavisakalyan, Astghik & Sharma, Swati & Weber, Clas, 2024. "Pro-environmental behavior and subjective well-being: Culture has a role to play," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
    9. Bartels, Lara & Kesternich, Martin, 2022. "Motivate the crowd or crowd- them out? The impact of local government spending on the voluntary provision of a green public good," ZEW Discussion Papers 22-040, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    10. Schleich, Joachim & Alsheimer, Sven, 2024. "The relationship between willingness to pay and carbon footprint knowledge: Are individuals willing to pay more to offset their carbon footprint if they learn about its size and distance to the 1.5 °C," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).
    11. Grolleau, Gilles & Ibanez, Lisette & Mzoughi, Naoufel, 2020. "Moral judgment of environmental harm caused by a single versus multiple wrongdoers: A survey experiment," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    12. Ming, Yaxin & Deng, Huixin & Wu, Xiaoyue, 2022. "The negative effect of air pollution on people's pro-environmental behavior," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 72-87.
    13. Maccarrone, Giovanni & Marini, Marco A. & Tarola, Ornella, 2023. "Shop Until You Drop: the Unexpected Effects of Anticonsumerism and Environmentalism," FEEM Working Papers 330384, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    14. Karoline Gamma & Robert Mai & Moritz Loock, 2020. "The Double-Edged Sword of Ethical Nudges: Does Inducing Hypocrisy Help or Hinder the Adoption of Pro-environmental Behaviors?," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 161(2), pages 351-373, January.
    15. Falk, Armin & Boneva, Teodora & Chopra, Felix, 2021. "Fighting Climate Change: the Role of Norms, Preferences, and Moral Values," CEPR Discussion Papers 16343, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    16. Zha, Donglan & Zhang, Chaoqun & Jiang, Pansong & Wang, Fu, 2024. "What makes energy consumption behavior visible? Conceptualization, scale development and validation of customized information feedback," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).
    17. Shrestha, Sujata & Shrestha, Uttam Babu & Shrestha, Bibek Raj & Maharjan, Shirish & Udas, Erica & Aryal, Kamal, 2024. "Determinants of adoption of climate resilient agricultural solutions," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 221(C).
    18. Cosimo Talò, 2024. "Modelling and Measuring Local Community Engagement (LCE)," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 173(2), pages 475-498, June.
    19. Valeria Fanghella & Lisette Ibanez & John Thøgersen, 2025. "What you don't know, can't hurt you: Avoiding donation requests for environmental causes," Post-Print hal-04982503, HAL.
    20. Carolin V. Zorell, 2020. "Nudges, Norms, or Just Contagion? A Theory on Influences on the Practice of (Non-)Sustainable Behavior," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(24), pages 1-21, December.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:old:dpaper:445. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catharina Schramm (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/fwoldde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.