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Microeconometric Analysis of the Retirement Decision: Italy

  • Raffaele Miniaci

This paper exploits an Italian microeconomic data set to study retirement behaviour of women and men using survival analysis techniques. After a brief introduction to the Italian pension system and to the Bank of Italy survey, different specifications of a Cox proportional hazard model are estimated. These show clearly that younger generations retire earlier, more educated and self-employed workers retire later, and women tend to postpone exit from the labour force beyond the standard entitlement age. The timing of retirement is inelastic to replacement rates: a 20% reduction of the replacement rate would cause a delay of 2-6 months ... Cet article utilise un ensemble de données micro-économiques italien pour étudier, en utilisant des techniques d'analyse de survie, le comportement d'hommes et de femmes vis-à-vis de la retraite. Après une brève introduction au système de retraites italien et à l’enquête de la Banque d'Italie, l'on estime différentes spécifications d'un modèle de Cox à hasard proportionnel. Celles-ci montrent clairement que les jeunes générations prennent leur retraite plus tôt, que les travailleurs indépendants et ceux qui sont plus instruits le font plus tard, et que les femmes ont tendance à repousser leur sortie du marché du travail après l’âge officielle de la retraite. Le moment de prendre la retraite n’est pas étroitement lié aux taux de remplacement : une réduction de 20 pour cent de celui-ci entraînerait un retard de 2 à 6 mois ...

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File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/514187844751
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Paper provided by OECD Publishing in its series OECD Economics Department Working Papers with number 205.

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Date of creation: 23 Jun 1998
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Handle: RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:205-en
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