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Microeconometric Analysis of the Retirement Decision: Italy

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  • Raffaele Miniaci

Abstract

This paper exploits an Italian microeconomic data set to study retirement behaviour of women and men using survival analysis techniques. After a brief introduction to the Italian pension system and to the Bank of Italy survey, different specifications of a Cox proportional hazard model are estimated. These show clearly that younger generations retire earlier, more educated and self-employed workers retire later, and women tend to postpone exit from the labour force beyond the standard entitlement age. The timing of retirement is inelastic to replacement rates: a 20% reduction of the replacement rate would cause a delay of 2-6 months ... Cet article utilise un ensemble de données micro-économiques italien pour étudier, en utilisant des techniques d'analyse de survie, le comportement d'hommes et de femmes vis-à-vis de la retraite. Après une brève introduction au système de retraites italien et à l’enquête de la Banque d'Italie, l'on estime différentes spécifications d'un modèle de Cox à hasard proportionnel. Celles-ci montrent clairement que les jeunes générations prennent leur retraite plus tôt, que les travailleurs indépendants et ceux qui sont plus instruits le font plus tard, et que les femmes ont tendance à repousser leur sortie du marché du travail après l’âge officielle de la retraite. Le moment de prendre la retraite n’est pas étroitement lié aux taux de remplacement : une réduction de 20 pour cent de celui-ci entraînerait un retard de 2 à 6 mois ...

Suggested Citation

  • Raffaele Miniaci, 1998. "Microeconometric Analysis of the Retirement Decision: Italy," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 205, OECD Publishing.
  • Handle: RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:205-en
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    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/514187844751
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    Cited by:

    1. Oscar Molina & Fabian Soria, 2006. "Factores Determinantes de la Probabilidad de Afiliación al Sistema de Pensiones en Bolivia," Development Research Working Paper Series 02/2006, Institute for Advanced Development Studies.
    2. Spataro, Luca, 2005. "Social security incentives and retirement decisions in Italy: An empirical insight," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(3), pages 223-256, September.
    3. Sašo Polanec & Aleš Ahčan & Miroslav Verbič, 2013. "Retirement decisions in transition: microeconometric evidence from Slovenia," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(1), pages 99-118, March.
    4. Monika Bütler & Olivia Huguenin & Federica Teppa, 2005. "Why Forcing People to Save Retirement May Backfire," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'Econométrie et d'Economie politique (DEEP) 05.05, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, DEEP.
    5. Roberto Leombruni & Matteo Richiardi, 2006. "LABORsim: An Agent-Based Microsimulation of Labour Supply – An Application to Italy," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 27(1), pages 63-88, February.
    6. Monika Bütler & Olivia Huguenin & Federica Teppa, 2005. "Why Forcing People to Save for Retirement May Backfire," University of St. Gallen Department of Economics working paper series 2005 2005-09, Department of Economics, University of St. Gallen.
    7. repec:jns:jbstat:v:227:y:2007:i:1:p:65-86 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Belloni, Michele & Alessie, Rob, 2009. "The importance of financial incentives on retirement choices: New evidence for Italy," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 578-588, October.
    9. Mario Sarcinelli, 2004. "La vigilanza sul sistema finanziario: obiettivi, assetti e approcci," Moneta e Credito, Economia civile, vol. 57(227), pages 233-277.
    10. Luca Spataro, "undated". "Social Security And Retirement Decisions In Italy," Discussion Papers 2003/1, Dipartimento di Economia e Management (DEM), University of Pisa, Pisa, Italy.
    11. Luca Spataro, 2002. "New Tools in Micromodeling Retirement Decisions: Overview and Applications to the Italian Case," Computing in Economics and Finance 2002 109, Society for Computational Economics.
    12. Rob Euwals & Daniel Vuuren & Ronald Wolthoff, 2010. "Early Retirement Behaviour in the Netherlands: Evidence From a Policy Reform," De Economist, Springer, vol. 158(3), pages 209-236, September.
    13. Agar Brugiavini & Franco Peracchi, 2004. "Micro-Modeling of Retirement Behavior in Italy," NBER Chapters,in: Social Security Programs and Retirement around the World: Micro-Estimation, pages 345-398 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Francesco Marchionne, 2004. "Una proposta di riforma per il sistema pensionistico italiano," Moneta e Credito, Economia civile, vol. 57(226), pages 161-196.

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