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Tests of Three Parity Conditions: Distinguishing Risk Premia and Systematic Forecast Errors

  • Richard C. Marston
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    Two explanations are given for why nominal or real returns differ across currencies: foreign exchange risk premia and systematic (rational) forecast errors. This study reexamines three parity conditions in international finance, uncovered interest parity, purchasing power parity, and real interest parity, to determine the relative importance of these two factors. The study develops joint tests of the three parity conditions by relating nominal and real interest differentials and inflation differentials to the same set of variables currently known to investors. The study tests parameter restrictions based on knowing that risk premiums only affect nominal and real interest differentials, but not inflation differentials, while systematic errors in forecasting exchange rates only affect nominal interest differentials and inflation differentials, but not real interest differentials.

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    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w4923.pdf
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    Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 4923.

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    Date of creation: Nov 1994
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    Publication status: published as Journal of International Money and Finance, Vol. 16, no. 2 (April 1997): 285-303.
    Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:4923
    Note: IFM
    Contact details of provider: Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.
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    Web page: http://www.nber.org
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    1. Huizinga, John & Mishkin, Frederic S, 1984. " Inflation and Real Interest Rates on Assets with Different Risk Characteristics," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(3), pages 699-712, July.
    2. Robert N. McCauley & Steven A. Zimmer, 1989. "Explaining international differences in the cost of capital," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Sum, pages 7-28.
    3. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1985. "International Capital Mobility and Crowding Out in the U.S. Economy: Imperfect Integration of Financial Markets or of Goods Markets?," NBER Working Papers 1773, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Shiller, Robert J, 1979. "The Volatility of Long-Term Interest Rates and Expectations Models of the Term Structure," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(6), pages 1190-1219, December.
    5. Abuaf, Niso & Jorion, Philippe, 1990. " Purchasing Power Parity in the Long Run," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(1), pages 157-74, March.
    6. Adler, Michael & Dumas, Bernard, 1983. " International Portfolio Choice and Corporation Finance: A Synthesis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 38(3), pages 925-84, June.
    7. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1982. "Are Real Interest Rates Equal Across Countries? An Empirical Investigation of International Parity Conditions," NBER Working Papers 1048, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Robert E. Cumby & Maurice Obstfeld, 1984. "International Interest Rate and Price Level Linkages under Flexible Exchange Rates: A Review of Recent Evidence," NBER Chapters, in: Exchange Rate Theory and Practice, pages 121-152 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Adler, Michael & Lehmann, Bruce, 1983. " Deviations from Purchasing Power Parity in the Long Run," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 38(5), pages 1471-87, December.
    10. Karen K. Lewis, 1994. "Puzzles in International Financial Markets," NBER Working Papers 4951, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Robert J. Shiller & John Y. Campbell & Kermit L. Schoenholtz, 1983. "Forward Rates and Future Policy: Interpreting the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 14(1), pages 173-224.
    12. Geert Bekaert & Robert J. Hodrick, 1991. "Characterizing Predictable Components in Excess Returns on Equity and Foreign Exchange Markets," NBER Working Papers 3790, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Kester, W. Carl & Luehrman, Timothy A., 1989. "Real interest rates and the cost of capital : A comparison of the United States and Japan," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 1(3), pages 279-301, July.
    14. Froot, Kenneth A & Thaler, Richard H, 1990. "Foreign Exchange," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(3), pages 179-92, Summer.
    15. Dutton, Marilyn Miller, 1993. "Real interest rate parity new measures and tests," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 62-77, February.
    16. Cumby, Robert E. & Huizinga, John, 1992. "Investigating the correlation of unobserved expectations : Expected returns in equity and foreign exchange markets and other examples," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 217-253, November.
    17. Lothian, James R. & Taylor, Mark P., 1997. "Real exchange rate behavior," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(6), pages 945-954, December.
    18. Mark, Nelson C., 1985. "Some evidence on the international inequality of real interest rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 189-208, June.
    19. Lewis, K.K., 1994. "Puzzles in international Financial Markets," Weiss Center Working Papers 94-7, Wharton School - Weiss Center for International Financial Research.
    20. Lewis, Karen K, 1989. "Changing Beliefs and Systematic Rational Forecast Errors with Evidence from Foreign Exchange," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 621-36, September.
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