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Technology and Labor Displacement: Evidence from Linking Patents with Worker-Level Data

Author

Listed:
  • Leonid Kogan
  • Dimitris Papanikolaou
  • Lawrence D.W. Schmidt
  • Bryan Seegmiller

Abstract

We develop measures of labor-saving and labor-augmenting technology exposure using textual analysis of patents and job tasks. Using US administrative data, we show that exposure to labor-saving technologies negatively affects the earnings of exposed workers. This negative effect is pervasive across both blue- and white-collar workers and across workers of different ages or earnings relative to their peers. In contrast, labor-augmenting technologies have a heterogeneous impact on exposed workers. While the wage bill paid to affected groups rises, this increase is driven primarily by an increase in employment, while earnings rise for new entrants but decline for incumbent workers. This decline is primarily present among white-collar, older, and higher-paid workers, highlighting the importance of vintage-specific human capital. Last, we find positive spillovers of both types of innovation at the industry level, benefiting other workers in the same industry who are not directly exposed to these innovations.

Suggested Citation

  • Leonid Kogan & Dimitris Papanikolaou & Lawrence D.W. Schmidt & Bryan Seegmiller, 2023. "Technology and Labor Displacement: Evidence from Linking Patents with Worker-Level Data," NBER Working Papers 31846, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:31846
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Cortes, Guido Matias & Dabed, Diego & Oliveira, Ana & Salomons, Anna, 2024. "Fissured firms and worker outcomes," CLEF Working Paper Series 80, Canadian Labour Economics Forum (CLEF), University of Waterloo.
    2. Jacob Dominski & Yong Suk Lee, 2025. "Advancing AI Capabilities and Evolving Labor Outcomes," Papers 2507.08244, arXiv.org.
    3. Sudheer Chava & Wendi Du & Indrajit Mitra & Agam Shah & Linghang Zeng, 2025. "Firm-Level Input Price Changes and Their Effects: A Deep Learning Approach," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2025-7, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    4. Xavier Gabaix & Ralph S J Koijen & Robert Richmond & Motohiro Yogo, 2024. "Artificial intelligence and big holdings data: Opportunities for central banks," BIS Working Papers 1222, Bank for International Settlements.
    5. Jiang, Wei & Tang, Yuehua & Xiao, Rachel J. & Yao, Vincent, 2025. "Surviving the fintech disruption," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 171(C).
    6. J. Carter Braxton & Bledi Taska, 2025. "Technological Change and Insuring Job Loss," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 58, October.
    7. Lipowski, Cäcilia & Salomons, Anna & Zierahn-Weilage, Ulrich, 2024. "Expertise at work: New technologies, new skills, and worker impacts," ZEW Discussion Papers 24-044, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    8. Ma, Wenting & Ouimet, Paige & Simintzi, Elena, 2025. "Mergers and acquisitions, technological change, and inequality," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 172(C).
    9. Tarek A. Hassan & Aakash Kalyani & Pascual Restrepo, 2025. "New Technologies and the College Premium," Working Papers 2025-022, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    10. Lukas B. Freund & Lukas F. Mann, 2025. "Job Transformation, Specialization, and the Labor Market Effects of AI," CESifo Working Paper Series 12072, CESifo.
    11. Dimitris Papanikolaou, 2025. "Comment on "How Adaptable Are American Workers to AI-Induced Job Displacement?"," NBER Chapters, in: The Economics of Transformative AI, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E0 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General
    • E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts
    • J01 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - General - - - Labor Economics: General
    • J23 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Demand
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • O3 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights
    • O4 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity

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