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Technology and Labor Displacement: Evidence from Linking Patents with Worker-Level Data

Author

Listed:
  • Leonid Kogan
  • Dimitris Papanikolaou
  • Lawrence D.W. Schmidt
  • Bryan Seegmiller

Abstract

We develop measures of labor-saving and labor-augmenting technology exposure using textual analysis of patents and job tasks. Using US administrative data, we show that both measures negatively predict earnings growth of individual incumbent workers. While labor-saving technologies predict earnings declines and higher likelihood of job loss for all workers, labor-augmenting technologies primarily predict losses for older or highly-paid workers. However, we find positive effects of labor-augmenting technologies on occupation-level employment and wage bills. A model featuring labor-saving and labor-augmenting technologies with vintage-specific human capital quantitatively matches these patterns. We extend our analysis to predict the effect of AI on earnings.

Suggested Citation

  • Leonid Kogan & Dimitris Papanikolaou & Lawrence D.W. Schmidt & Bryan Seegmiller, 2023. "Technology and Labor Displacement: Evidence from Linking Patents with Worker-Level Data," NBER Working Papers 31846, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:31846
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    JEL classification:

    • E0 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General
    • E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts
    • J01 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - General - - - Labor Economics: General
    • J23 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Demand
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • O3 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights
    • O4 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity

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