IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/2902.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Term Structure of Interest Rates and the Effects of Macroeconomic Policy

Author

Listed:
  • Stephen J. Turnovsky

Abstract

This paper analyzes the effects of monetary and fiscal policy shocks on the term structure of interest rates. The effects of temporary versus permanent, unanticipated versus anticipated, policy disturbances and the responses of long versus short, and real versus nominal, rates are contrasted. The main results are summarized in a series of propositions. Among them, the finding that an unanticipated permanent fiscal expansion impacts more on long-term rates, may help explain their observed excessive volatility. The effects of structural changes on the relative variances are also discussed, with the effect which operates through the impact on private speculative behavior being emphasized.

Suggested Citation

  • Stephen J. Turnovsky, 1989. "The Term Structure of Interest Rates and the Effects of Macroeconomic Policy," NBER Working Papers 2902, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:2902
    Note: ME
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w2902.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Flavin, Marjorie A, 1983. "Excess Volatility in the Financial Markets: A Reassessment of the Empirical Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(6), pages 929-956, December.
    2. Blanchard, Olivier J, 1981. "Output, the Stock Market, and Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(1), pages 132-143, March.
    3. John C. Cox & Jonathan E. Ingersoll Jr. & Stephen A. Ross, 2005. "A Theory Of The Term Structure Of Interest Rates," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: Theory Of Valuation, chapter 5, pages 129-164 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    4. Modigliani, Franco & Shiller, Robert J, 1973. "Inflation, Rational Expectations and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 40(157), pages 12-43, February.
    5. N. Gregory Mankiw & Jeffrey A. Miron, 1986. "The Changing Behavior of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 101(2), pages 211-228.
    6. McCafferty, Stephen & Driskill, Robert, 1980. "Problems of Existence and Uniqueness in Nonlinear Rational Expectations Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(5), pages 1313-1317, July.
    7. N. Gregory Mankiw, 1986. "The Term Structure of Interest Rates Revisited," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 17(1), pages 61-110.
    8. Turnovsky, Stephen J & Miller, Marcus H, 1984. "The Effects of Government Expenditure on the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 16(1), pages 16-33, February.
    9. McCafferty, Stephen, 1986. "Aggregate Demand and Interest Rates: A Macroeconomic Approach to the Term Structure," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 24(4), pages 521-533, October.
    10. Singleton, Kenneth J, 1980. "Expectations Models of the Term Structure and Implied Variance Bounds," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(6), pages 1159-1176, December.
    11. Mascaro, Angelo & Meltzer, Allan H., 1983. "Long- and short-term interest rates in a risky world," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 485-518, November.
    12. Kleidon, Allan W, 1986. "Variance Bounds Tests and Stock Price Valuation Models," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(5), pages 953-1001, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. van Bergeijk, Peter A. G. & Berk, Jan Marc, 2000. "Is the yield curve a useful Information variable for the Eurosystem?," Working Paper Series 0011, European Central Bank.
    2. Bruno Ducoudré, 2005. "Fiscal policy and interest rates," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2005-08, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    3. Duarte, A. & Venetis, I. & Payá, I., 2004. "Curva de rendimientos y crecimiento de la producción real en la UEM: eficiencia y estabilidad predictiva./Yield Curve and Real Output Growth in the EMU: Efficiency and Predictive Stability," Estudios de Economía Aplicada, Estudios de Economía Aplicada, vol. 22, pages 1-21, Abril.
    4. Jagjit Chadha & Sean Holly, 2006. "Macroeconomic Models and the Yield Curve," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 105, Society for Computational Economics.
    5. Drobyshevsky Sergey & Lugovoy Oleg & Astafieva Ekaterina & Burkova N. Yu., 2009. "Modeling the term structure of interest rates on Russian government bonds in 2000 – 2008," Research Paper Series, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 130P.
    6. Helen Popper, 1995. "Term premia comovement in German, Japanese, and U.S. domestic markets," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 6(1), pages 49-62, January.
    7. Viktor Kotlán, 2001. "Monetary policy and the term structure of interest rates in a small open economy - a model framework approach," Macroeconomics 0110003, EconWPA.
    8. Stephen K. McNees & Geoffrey M. B. Tootell, 1991. ""Whither New England"?," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Jul, pages 11-26.
    9. Cebula, Richard, 1990. "A Note on Federal Budget Deficits and the Term Structure of Real Interest Rates in the United States," MPRA Paper 50238, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Jesper Lindé, 2001. "Fiscal policy and interest rates in a small open economy," Finnish Economic Papers, Finnish Economic Association, vol. 14(2), pages 65-83, Autumn.
    11. Walter Fisher, 2000. "The Term Structure of Interest Rates in a Small Open Economy: A Stochastic Analysis," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 11(3), pages 261-278, July.
    12. Arman Mansoorian & Mohammed Mohsin, 2004. "Monetary policy in a cash-in-advance economy: employment, capital accumulation, and the term structure of interest rates," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 37(2), pages 336-352, May.
    13. Duarte, Agustin & Venetis, Ioannis A. & Paya, Ivan, 2005. "Predicting real growth and the probability of recession in the Euro area using the yield spread," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 261-277.
    14. Chadha, Jagjit S. & Holly, Sean, 2010. "Macroeconomic models and the yield curve: An assessment of the fit," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(8), pages 1343-1358, August.
    15. Bruno Ducoudre, 2008. "Structure par terme des taux d’intérêt et anticipations de la politique économique," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/5221, Sciences Po.
    16. Maria Carme Riera i Prunera, 2003. "Deficit, human capital and economic growth dynamics," Working Papers in Economics 102, Universitat de Barcelona. Espai de Recerca en Economia.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:2902. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: () or (Joanne Lustig). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.