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A Note on Federal Budget Deficits and the Term Structure of Real Interest Rates in the United States

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  • Cebula, Richard

Abstract

Using quarterly data and dealing with the ex post real rates on three month U.S. Treasury bills and 20 year U.S. Treasury bonds, this empirical note has estimated an IS-LM based regression by 2SLS. The results indicate that the budget deficit raises the slope of the yield curve. Furthermore, to the extent that private sector capital formation is sensitive to longer term real interest rates in the United States, federal budget deficits lead to crowding out of private investment and hence to slower economic growth over the longer run.

Suggested Citation

  • Cebula, Richard, 1990. "A Note on Federal Budget Deficits and the Term Structure of Real Interest Rates in the United States," MPRA Paper 50238, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:50238
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/50238/1/MPRA_paper_50238.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Thies, Clifford F, 1986. "Business Price Expectations: 1947-83," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 18(3), pages 336-354, August.
    2. Cebula, Richard, 1987. "Federal Government Budget Deficits and Interest Rates: A Brief Note," MPRA Paper 49829, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Cox, John C & Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr & Ross, Stephen A, 1981. "A Re-examination of Traditional Hypotheses about the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 36(4), pages 769-799, September.
    4. McMillin, W. Douglas, 1986. "Federal deficits and short-term interest rates," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 403-422.
    5. Turnovsky, Stephen J, 1989. "The Term Structure of Interest Rates and the Effects of Macroeconomic Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 21(3), pages 321-347, August.
    6. Modigliani, Franco & Shiller, Robert J, 1973. "Inflation, Rational Expectations and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 40(157), pages 12-43, February.
    7. Turnovsky, Stephen J & Miller, Marcus H, 1984. "The Effects of Government Expenditure on the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 16(1), pages 16-33, February.
    8. Evans, Paul, 1987. "Do budget deficits raise nominal interest rates? : Evidence from six countries," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 281-300, September.
    9. Makin, John H, 1983. "Real Interest, Money Surprises, Anticipated Inflation and Fiscal Deficits," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 65(3), pages 374-384, August.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Cebula, Richard & Toma, Michael, 2004. "Do Budget Deficits Reduce Household Taxpayer Compliance? Preliminary Evidence Using the Feige Data," MPRA Paper 56739, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Belton, Willie & Cebula, Richard, 1992. "Budget Deficits and Economic Growth," MPRA Paper 61413, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. R.J. Cebula, 1997. "Government deficit, ex post real long-term interest rates and causality," BNL Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 50(202), pages 325-336.
    4. Richard J. Cebula & Maggie Foley, 2014. "Teaching the economics of income tax evasion," Chapters,in: New Developments in Economic Education, chapter 12, pages 133-139 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    5. Clifford Thies & Robert Crawford, 1997. "Fisher equations inverted and not," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 21(2), pages 13-17, June.
    6. Yu Hsing, 2010. "Government Borrowing And The Longterm Interest Rate: Application Of An Extended Loanable Funds Model To The Slovak Republic," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics, University of Belgrade, vol. 55(184), pages 58-70, January –.
    7. Yu Hsing, 2009. "Does more government deficit raise the interest rate? Application of extended loanable funds model to Slovenia," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics, vol. 27(2), pages 349-361.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    budget deficit; term structure of real interest rates; yield curve;

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus

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