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Covid-19, Shelter-In Place Strategies and Tipping

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  • Zhihan Cui
  • Geoffrey Heal
  • Howard Kunreuther

Abstract

Social distancing via shelter-in-place strategies has emerged as the most effective way to combat Covid-19. In the United States, choices about such policies are made by individual states. Here we show that the policy choice made by one state influences the incentives that other states face to adopt similar policies: they can be viewed as strategic complements in a supermodular game. If they satisfy the condition of uniform strict increasing differences then following Heal and Kunreuther ([6]) we show that if enough states engage in social distancing, they will tip others to do the same and thus shift the Nash equilibrium with respect to the number of states engaging in social distancing.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhihan Cui & Geoffrey Heal & Howard Kunreuther, 2020. "Covid-19, Shelter-In Place Strategies and Tipping," NBER Working Papers 27124, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:27124
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. John M. Barrios & Yael Hochberg, 2020. "Risk Perception Through the Lens of Politics in the Time of the COVID-19 Pandemic," NBER Working Papers 27008, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Geoffrey Heal & Howard Kunreuther, 2010. "Social Reinforcement: Cascades, Entrapment, and Tipping," American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(1), pages 86-99, February.
    3. Jeffrey E. Harris, 2020. "The Coronavirus Epidemic Curve is Already Flattening in New York City," NBER Working Papers 26917, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Cass R. Sunstein, 2020. "The meaning of masks," Journal of Behavioral Economics for Policy, Society for the Advancement of Behavioral Economics (SABE), vol. 4(S), pages 5-8, June.
    5. Thunström, Linda & Newbold, Stephen C. & Finnoff, David & Ashworth, Madison & Shogren, Jason F., 2020. "The Benefits and Costs of Using Social Distancing to Flatten the Curve for COVID-19," Journal of Benefit-Cost Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(2), pages 179-195, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Vadim Elenev & Luis E. Quintero & Alessandro Rebucci & Emilia Simeonova, 2021. "Direct and Spillover Effects from Staggered Adoption of Health Policies: Evidence from COVID-19 Stay-at-Home Orders," NBER Working Papers 29088, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Abel Brodeur & David Gray & Anik Islam & Suraiya Bhuiyan, 2021. "A literature review of the economics of COVID‐19," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(4), pages 1007-1044, September.
    3. John Gathergood & Fabian Gunzinger & Benedict Guttman-Kenney & Edika Quispe-Torreblanca & Neil Stewart, 2020. "Levelling Down and the COVID-19 Lockdowns: Uneven Regional Recovery in UK Consumer Spending," Papers 2012.09336, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2020.
    4. Liang, Yousha & Shi, Kang & Tang, Junjie & Xu, Juanyi, 2022. "Pandemic and containment policies in open economy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    5. John Gathergood & Benedict Guttman-Kenney, 2020. "The English Patient: Evaluating Local Lockdowns Using Real-Time COVID-19 & Consumption Data," Papers 2010.04129, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2021.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C72 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Noncooperative Games
    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health

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