Private Saving in the United States: 1950-85
The official personal and private saving statistics contain a number of conceptual measurement errors. In this paper we develop and analyze personal and private saving measures adjusted for the difference between income tax payments and actual liabilities, saving via net purchases of government pension assets (including social security) and consumer durables, and that part of after-tax interest income attributable to inflation. We find that the adjusted personal and private saving rates in recent years are only slightly below their post-1950 averages, not at all time lows as reported in the official NIPA statistics. Furthermore, over the past 35 years, personal saving has been more volatile and corporate saving less volatile than the official measures. Also, the inflation premium corrections remove the negative correlation between personal and corporate saving. That is, the often observed negative correlation between the official measures of personal and corporate saving is due solely to measurement errors in the two series. Finally, the decrease in federal government saving in the 1980s is the continuation of a 30-year trend, not a one-time aberration.
|Date of creation:||Jun 1987|
|Publication status:||published as In The Measurement of Saving, Investment and Wealth, Robert Lipsey and Helen Tice, eds. Studies in Income and Wealth, vol 52, University of Chicago press, 1989.|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.|
Web page: http://www.nber.org
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National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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- Joel Slemrod, 1986. "Saving and the Fear of Nuclear War," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 30(3), pages 403-419, September.
- Feldstein, Martin S., 1973. "Tax incentives, corporate saving, and capital accumulation in the United States," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 159-171, April.
- William Poole, 1972. "The Role of Interest Rates and Inflation in the Consumption Function," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 3(1), pages 211-220.
- Jump, Gregory V, 1980. "Interest Rates, Inflation Expectations, and Spurious Elements in Measured Real Income and Saving," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(5), pages 990-1004, December.
- Alan J. Auerbach & Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 1981. "An Examination of Empirical Tests of Social Security and Savings," NBER Working Papers 0730, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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