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Treasury Bill Rates in the 1970s and 1980s

  • Hendershott, Patric H
  • Peek, Joe

As is widely recognized, real interest rates in the early 1980s were at peaks not witnessed since the late 1920s. Less well perceived is the sharp decline in real interest rates in the middle 1980s to their average levels of the previous quarter century. This paper seeks to identify the underlying determinants of the major movements in real six-month Treasury bill rates. The primary innovation is the development of a new monetary policy proxy that explains much of the real rate movement in the 1980s. Copyright 1992 by Ohio State University Press.

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Article provided by Blackwell Publishing in its journal Journal of Money, Credit and Banking.

Volume (Year): 24 (1992)
Issue (Month): 2 (May)
Pages: 195-214

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Handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:24:y:1992:i:2:p:195-214
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0022-2879

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  1. Patric H. Hendershott, 1984. "Debt and Equity Returns Revisited," NBER Working Papers 1521, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Joel Slemrod, 1988. "Fear of Nuclear War and Intercountry Differences in the Rate of Saving," NBER Working Papers 2801, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Peek, Joe & A. Wilcox, James, 1986. "Tax rate effects on interest rates," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 183-186.
  4. Peek, Joe & Wilcox, James A, 1983. " The Postwar Stability of the Fisher Effect," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 38(4), pages 1111-24, September.
  5. Jeffrey D. Sachs, 1981. "The Current Account and macroeconomic Adjustment in the 1970s," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 12(1), pages 201-282.
  6. Thomas D. Simpson, 1984. "Changes in the Financial System: Implication for Monetary Policy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 15(1), pages 249-272.
  7. Startz, Richard, 1983. "Computation of linear hypothesis tests for two-stage least squares," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 11(1-2), pages 129-131.
  8. Joe Peek & James A. Wilcox, 1984. "The Degree of Fiscal Illusion in Interest Rates: Some Direct Estimates," NBER Working Papers 1358, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Stephen M. Goldfeld, 1973. "The Demand for Money Revisited," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 4(3), pages 577-646.
  10. Patric H. Hendershott & Joe Peek, 1989. "Aggregate U.S. Private Saving: Conceptual Measures," NBER Chapters, in: The Measurement of Saving, Investment, and Wealth, pages 185-226 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Barro, Robert J, 1974. "Are Government Bonds Net Wealth?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(6), pages 1095-1117, Nov.-Dec..
  12. Friedman, Benjamin M, 1988. "Lessons on Monetary Policy from the 1980s," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 2(3), pages 51-72, Summer.
  13. Cook, Timothy Q & Hendershott, Patric H, 1978. "The Impact of Taxes, Risk and Relative Security Supplies on Interest Rate Differentials," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 33(4), pages 1173-86, September.
  14. Makin, John H, 1983. "Real Interest, Money Surprises, Anticipated Inflation and Fiscal Deficits," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 65(3), pages 374-84, August.
  15. Evans, Paul, 1985. "Do Large Deficits Produce High Interest Rates?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(1), pages 68-87, March.
  16. Olivier J. Blanchard & Lawrence H. Summers, 1984. "Perspectives on High World Real Interest Rates," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 15(2), pages 273-334.
  17. Robert E. Lipsey & Helen Stone Tice, 1989. "The Measurement of Saving, Investment, and Wealth," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number lips89-1, December.
  18. Richard H. Clarida & Benjamin M. Friedman, 1983. "Why Have Short-Term Interest Rates Been So High?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 14(2), pages 553-586.
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