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Seeding the S-Curve? The Role of Early Adopters in Diffusion

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  • Christian Catalini
  • Catherine Tucker

Abstract

In October 2014, all 4,494 undergraduates at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology were given access to Bitcoin, a decentralized digital currency. As a unique feature of the experiment, students who would generally adopt first were placed in a situation where many of their peers received access to the technology before them, and they then had to decide whether to continue to invest in this digital currency or exit. Our results suggest that when natural early adopters are delayed relative to their peers, they are more likely to reject the technology. We present further evidence that this appears to be driven by identity, in that the effect occurs in situations where natural early adopters' delay relative to others is most visible, and in settings where the natural early adopters would have been somewhat unique in their tech-savvy status. We then show not only that natural early adopters are more likely to reject the technology if they are delayed, but that this rejection generates spillovers on adoption by their peers who are not natural early adopters. This suggests that small changes in the initial availability of a technology have a lasting effect on its potential: Seeding a technology while ignoring early adopters' needs for distinctiveness is counterproductive.

Suggested Citation

  • Christian Catalini & Catherine Tucker, 2016. "Seeding the S-Curve? The Role of Early Adopters in Diffusion," NBER Working Papers 22596, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:22596
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    1. Joshi, Kuhu & Joshi, Pramod Kumar & Khan, Md. Tajuddin & Kishore, Avinash, 2018. "Insights on the rapid adoption of Pusa 1121 basmati variety in North India," IFPRI discussion papers 1756, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    2. Yosuke Uno & Akira Sonoda & Masaki Bessho, 2021. "The Economics of Privacy: A Primer Especially for Policymakers," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 21-E-11, Bank of Japan.
    3. Christopher Henry & Kim Huynh & Gradon Nicholls, 2017. "Bitcoin Awareness and Usage in Canada," Staff Working Papers 17-56, Bank of Canada.
    4. Neil Gandal & Hanna Halaburda, 2016. "Can We Predict the Winner in a Market with Network Effects? Competition in Cryptocurrency Market," Games, MDPI, vol. 7(3), pages 1-21, July.
    5. Ioanna Roussou & Emmanouil Stiakakis & Angelo Sifaleras, 2019. "An empirical study on the commercial adoption of digital currencies," Information Systems and e-Business Management, Springer, vol. 17(2), pages 223-259, December.
    6. Bäck, Asta & Hajikhani, Arash & Jäger, Angela & Schubert, Torben & Suominen, Arho, 2022. "Return of the Solow-paradox in AI? AI-adoption and firm productivity," Papers in Innovation Studies 2022/1, Lund University, CIRCLE - Centre for Innovation Research.
    7. Henry, Christopher S. & Huynh, Kim P. & Nicholls, Gradon, 2018. "Bitcoin awareness and usage in Canada," Journal of Digital Banking, Henry Stewart Publications, vol. 2(4), pages 311-337, May.
    8. Albekov Adam Umarovich & Vovchenko Natalia Gennadyevna & Andreeva Olga Vladimirovna & Sichev Roman Alexandrovich, 2017. "Block Chain and Financial Controlling in the System of Technological Provision of Large Corporations," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(3B), pages 3-12.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • G29 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Other
    • L14 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Transactional Relationships; Contracts and Reputation
    • M13 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Business Administration - - - New Firms; Startups
    • M3 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Marketing and Advertising
    • O31 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Innovation and Invention: Processes and Incentives
    • O32 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Management of Technological Innovation and R&D
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes

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