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Bubble Investing: Learning from History

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  • William N. Goetzmann

Abstract

History is important to the study of financial bubbles precisely because they are extremely rare events, but history can be misleading. The rarity of bubbles in the historical record makes the sample size for inference small. Restricting attention to crashes that followed a large increase in market level makes negative historical outcomes salient. In this paper I examine the frequency of large, sudden increases in market value in a broad panel data of world equity markets extending from the beginning of the 20th century. I find the probability of a crash conditional on a boom is only slightly higher than the unconditional probability. The chances that a market gave back it gains following a doubling in value are about 10%. In simple terms, bubbles are booms that went bad. Not all booms are bad.

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  • William N. Goetzmann, 2015. "Bubble Investing: Learning from History," NBER Working Papers 21693, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:21693
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    Cited by:

    1. Greenwood, Robin & Shleifer, Andrei & You, Yang, 2019. "Bubbles for Fama," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1), pages 20-43.
    2. Patty Duijm, 2022. "Foreign‐funded credit: Funding the credit cycle?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(2), pages 167-182, August.
    3. Quinn, William & Turner, John D., 2020. "Bubbles in history," QUCEH Working Paper Series 2020-07, Queen's University Belfast, Queen's University Centre for Economic History.
    4. Tom Roberts, 2017. "A Counterfactual Valuation of the Stock Index as a Predictor of Crashes," Staff Working Papers 17-38, Bank of Canada.
    5. Michael D. Bordo, 2017. "An historical perspective on financial stability and monetary policy regimes: A case for caution in central banks current obsession with financial stability," Working Paper 2018/5, Norges Bank.
    6. Stefanescu, Razvan & Dumitriu, Ramona, 2016. "Particularitǎţi ale evoluţiei variabilelor financiare [Some particularities of the financial variables evolution]," MPRA Paper 73481, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 02 Sep 2016.
    7. Olivier Blanchard & Lawrence H. Summers, 2019. "Ripensare le politiche macroeconomiche: evoluzione o rivoluzione? (Evolution or Revolution? Rethinking Macroeconomic Policy after the Great Recession)," Moneta e Credito, Economia civile, vol. 72(287), pages 171-195.
    8. Bordo, M.D. & Meissner, C.M., 2016. "Fiscal and Financial Crises," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 355-412, Elsevier.
    9. Olivier J. Blanchard & Lawrence H. Summers, 2017. "Rethinking Stabilization Policy: Evolution or Revolution?," NBER Working Papers 24179, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Michael D. Bordo, 2017. "An Historical Perspective on the Quest for Financial Stability and the Monetary Policy Regime," Economics Working Papers 17108, Hoover Institution, Stanford University.
    11. Quinn, William & Turner, John D., 2021. "Riding the bubble or taken for a ride? Investors in the British bicycle mania," QUCEH Working Paper Series 21-07, Queen's University Belfast, Queen's University Centre for Economic History.
    12. Quinn, William, 2016. "Technological revolutions and speculative finance: Evidence from the British Bicycle Mania," QUCEH Working Paper Series 2016-06, Queen's University Belfast, Queen's University Centre for Economic History.
    13. Patty Duijm, 2019. "Foreign funded credit: funding the credit cycle?," DNB Working Papers 658, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    14. Quinn, William & Turner, John D., 2021. "Riding the Bubble or Taken for a Ride? Investors in the British Bicycle Mania," QBS Working Paper Series 2021/08, Queen's University Belfast, Queen's Business School.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • N2 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions

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