IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/21019.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Precautionary Strategies and Household Saving

Author

Listed:
  • Joshua Aizenman
  • Eduardo Cavallo
  • Ilan Noy

Abstract

Why do people save? A strand of the literature has emphasized the role of ‘precautionary’ motives; i.e., private agents save in order to mitigate unexpected future income shocks. An implication is that in countries faced with more macroeconomic volatility and risk, private saving should be higher. From the observable data, however, we find a negative correlation between risk and private saving in cross-country comparisons, particularly in developing countries. We provide a plausible explanation for the disconnect between precautionary-saving theory and the empirical evidence that is based on a model with a richer account for the various modes of ‘precautionary’ behavior by private agents, in cases where institutions are weaker and labor informality is prevalent. In such environments, household saving decisions are intertwined with firms’ investment decisions. As a result, the interaction between saving behavior, broadly construed, and aggregate risk and uncertainty, may be more complex than is frequently assumed.

Suggested Citation

  • Joshua Aizenman & Eduardo Cavallo & Ilan Noy, 2015. "Precautionary Strategies and Household Saving," NBER Working Papers 21019, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:21019
    Note: IFM
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w21019.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. D'Erasmo, Pablo N. & Moscoso Boedo, Hernan J., 2012. "Financial structure, informality and development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(3), pages 286-302.
    2. Stephen P. Zeldes, 1989. "Optimal Consumption with Stochastic Income: Deviations from Certainty Equivalence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 104(2), pages 275-298.
    3. Hansen, Lars Peter & Sargent, Thomas J., 2010. "Wanting Robustness in Macroeconomics," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 20, pages 1097-1157, Elsevier.
    4. Joshua Aizenman & Nancy Marion, 1999. "Volatility and Investment: Interpreting Evidence from Developing Countries," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 66(262), pages 157-1179, May.
    5. Oded Galor & Joseph Zeira, 1993. "Income Distribution and Macroeconomics," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 60(1), pages 35-52.
    6. Fogli, Alessandra & Perri, Fabrizio, 2015. "Macroeconomic volatility and external imbalances," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 1-15.
    7. Skinner, Jonathan, 1988. "Risky income, life cycle consumption, and precautionary savings," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 237-255, September.
    8. Matias Busso & Maria Victoria Fazio & Santiago Levy Algazi, 2012. "(In)Formal and (Un)Productive: The Productivity Costs of Excessive Informality in Mexico," Research Department Publications 4789, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    9. Ricardo Bebczuk & Eduardo Cavallo, 2016. "Is business saving really none of our business?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(24), pages 2266-2284, May.
    10. Loayza, Norman V., 1996. "The economics of the informal sector: a simple model and some empirical evidence from Latin America," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 129-162, December.
    11. Francois Gourio, 2012. "Disaster Risk and Business Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(6), pages 2734-2766, October.
    12. Guillermo E. Perry & William F. Maloney & Omar S. Arias & Pablo Fajnzylber & Andrew D. Mason & Jaime Saavedra-Chanduvi, 2007. "Informality : Exit and Exclusion," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 6730.
    13. Sangeeta Pratap & Erwan Quintin, 2006. "The Informal Sector in Developing Countries: Output, Assets and Employment," WIDER Working Paper Series RP2006-130, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    14. Rafael La Porta & Andrei Shleifer, 2008. "The Unofficial Economy and Economic Development," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 39(2 (Fall)), pages 275-363.
    15. repec:bla:econom:v:66:y:1999:i:262:p:157-79 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Henrik Cronqvist & Stephan Siegel, 2015. "The Origins of Savings Behavior," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 123(1), pages 123-169.
    17. Emi Nakamura & Jón Steinsson & Robert Barro & José Ursúa, 2013. "Crises and Recoveries in an Empirical Model of Consumption Disasters," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(3), pages 35-74, July.
    18. Maloney, William F., 2004. "Informality Revisited," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 32(7), pages 1159-1178, July.
    19. Ricardo Bebczuk & Eduardo Cavallo, 2016. "Is business saving really none of our business?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(24), pages 2266-2284, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Elena Ellmeier & Melanie Koch & Thomas Scheiber, 2023. "Saving behavior along the income distribution during the COVID-19 pandemic," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue Q1/23, pages 7-21.
    2. Flavia Corneli, 2017. "Medium and long term implications of financial integration without financial development," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1120, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    3. Corneille, O. & D’Hondt, C. & De Winne, R. & Efendic, E. & Todorovic, A., 2021. "What leads people to tolerate negative interest rates on their savings?," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    4. Cengiz Tunc & Abdullah Yavas, 2017. "Collateral Damage: The Impact of Mortgage Debt on U.S. Savings," Housing Policy Debate, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(5), pages 712-733, September.
    5. Aneta M. Klopocka & Rumiana Gorska, 2021. "Forecasting Household Saving Rate with Consumer Confidence Indicator and its Components: Panel Data Analysis of 14 European Countries," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(3), pages 874-898.
    6. Flavia Corneli, 2021. "Financial Integration Without Financial Development," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 49(2), pages 201-220, June.
    7. Aneta Maria Kłopocka & Ryszard Wilczyński, 2021. "Do Credit Supply and Unemployment Risk Matter for Household Saving? Evidence from Poland," Contemporary Economics, University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw., vol. 15(4), December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Joshua Aizenman & Eduardo Cavallo & Ilan Noy, 2015. "Precautionary Strategies and Household Saving," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 26(5), pages 911-939, November.
    2. Grigoli, Francesco & Herman, Alexander & Schmidt-Hebbel, Klaus, 2018. "Saving in the world," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 257-270.
    3. D׳Erasmo, Pablo N. & Moscoso Boedo, Hernan J. & Şenkal, Aslı, 2014. "Misallocation, informality, and human capital: Understanding the role of institutions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 122-142.
    4. Lopez-Martin, Bernabe, 2019. "Informal Sector Misallocation," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(8), pages 3065-3098, December.
    5. Aizenman, Joshua & Noy, Ilan, 2015. "Saving and the long shadow of macroeconomic shocks," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 147-159.
    6. Belal Fallah, 2014. "The Pros and Cons of Formalizing Informal MSES in the Palestinian Economy," Working Papers 893, Economic Research Forum, revised Dec 2014.
    7. Mohammad Amin & Cedric Okou, 2020. "Casting a shadow: Productivity of formal firms and informality," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(4), pages 1610-1630, November.
    8. D'Erasmo, Pablo N. & Moscoso Boedo, Hernan J., 2012. "Financial structure, informality and development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(3), pages 286-302.
    9. Mitra, Shalini, 2014. "Tax Evasion, Tax Policies and the Role Played by Financial Markets," MPRA Paper 58977, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Distinguin, Isabelle & Rugemintwari, Clovis & Tacneng, Ruth, 2016. "Can Informal Firms Hurt Registered SMEs’ Access to Credit?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 18-40.
    11. Mr. Francesco Grigoli & Alexander Herman & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2014. "World Saving," IMF Working Papers 2014/204, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Calderón, Valentina & Marinescu, Ioana, 2011. "The Impact of Colombia's Pension and Health Insurance Systems on Informality," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 3831, Inter-American Development Bank.
    13. García Cruz Gustavo Adolfo, 2008. "Informalidad regional en Colombia. Evidencia y Determinantes," Revista Desarrollo y Sociedad, Universidad de los Andes,Facultad de Economía, CEDE, February.
    14. Hartmut Lehmann, 2015. "Informal Employment in Transition Countries: Empirical Evidence and Research Challenges," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 57(1), pages 1-30, March.
    15. Norman Loayza, 2007. "The causes and consequences of informality in Peru," Working Papers 2007-018, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    16. Leal Ordóñez, Julio C., 2010. "Informal sector, productivity, and tax collection," MPRA Paper 26058, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Oct 2010.
    17. Lehmann, Hartmut & Pignatti, Norberto, 2018. "Informal employment relationships and the labor market: Is there segmentation in Ukraine?," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 838-857.
    18. Colombo, Emilio & Onnis, Luisanna & Tirelli, Patrizio, 2016. "Shadow economies at times of banking crises: Empirics and theory," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 180-190.
    19. Mitra, Shalini, 2017. "To tax or not to tax? When does it matter for informality?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 117-127.
    20. Semih Tumen, 2017. "Entrepreneurship in the shadows," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 25(2), pages 239-269, April.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E26 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Informal Economy; Underground Economy
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:21019. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.