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Projecting the Effect of Changes in Smoking and Obesity on Future Life Expectancy in the United States

Author

Listed:
  • Samuel H. Preston
  • Andrew Stokes
  • Neil K. Mehta
  • Bochen Cao

Abstract

We project the effects of declining smoking and increasing obesity on mortality in the United States over the period 2010-2040. Data on cohort behavioral histories are integrated into these projections. Future distributions of body mass indices are projected using transition matrices applied to the initial distribution in 2010. In addition to projections of current obesity, we project distributions of obesity when cohorts were age 25. To these distributions we apply death rates by current and age-25 obesity status observed in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, 1988-2006. Projections of the effects of smoking are based on observed relations between cohort smoking patterns and cohort death rates from lung cancer. We find that both changes in smoking and in obesity are expected to have large effects on mortality. For males, the reductions in smoking have larger effects than the rise in obesity throughout the projection period. By 2040, male life expectancy at age 40 is expected to have gained 0.92 years from the combined effects. Among women, however, the two sets of effects largely offset one another throughout the projection period, with a small gain of 0.26 years expected by 2040.

Suggested Citation

  • Samuel H. Preston & Andrew Stokes & Neil K. Mehta & Bochen Cao, 2012. "Projecting the Effect of Changes in Smoking and Obesity on Future Life Expectancy in the United States," NBER Working Papers 18407, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:18407
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Neil Mehta & Virginia Chang, 2009. "Mortality attributable to obesity among middle-aged adults in the united states," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 46(4), pages 851-872, November.
    2. Samuel Preston & Haidong Wang, 2006. "Sex mortality differences in The United States: The role of cohort smoking patterns," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 43(4), pages 631-646, November.
    3. Anirban Basu, 2010. "Forecasting Distribution of Body Mass Index in the United States: Is There More Room for Growth?," Medical Decision Making, , vol. 30(3), pages 1-11, May.
    4. Ruhm Christopher J, 2007. "Current and Future Prevalence of Obesity and Severe Obesity in the United States," Forum for Health Economics & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 10(2), pages 1-28, September.
    5. Mehta, N. & Preston, S., 2012. "Continued increases in the relative risk of death from smoking," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 102(11), pages 2181-2186.
    6. Charles L. Baum & Shin-Yi Chou, 2011. "The Socio-Economic Causes of Obesity," NBER Working Papers 17423, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Samir Soneji & Gary King, 2012. "Statistical Security for Social Security," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 49(3), pages 1037-1060, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Mark R. Cullen & Michael Baiocchi & Karen Eggleston & Pooja Loftus & Victor Fuchs, 2015. "The Weaker Sex? Vulnerable Men, Resilient Women, and Variations in Sex Differences in Mortality since 1900," NBER Working Papers 21114, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. O'Connell, Alison, 2014. "Longevity Trends and their Implications for the Age of Eligibility for New Zealand Superannuation," Working Paper Series 3168, Victoria University of Wellington, Chair in Public Finance.
    3. O'Connell, Alison, 2014. "Longevity Trends and their Implications for the Age of Eligibility for New Zealand Superannuation," Working Paper Series 18814, Victoria University of Wellington, Chair in Public Finance.
    4. Hübler, Olaf, 2017. "Health and weight – gender-specific linkages under heterogeneity, interdependence and resilience factors," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 96-111.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • I0 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - General
    • I1 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health
    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J18 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Public Policy

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