IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/18407.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Projecting the Effect of Changes in Smoking and Obesity on Future Life Expectancy in the United States

Author

Listed:
  • Samuel H. Preston
  • Andrew Stokes
  • Neil K. Mehta
  • Bochen Cao

Abstract

We project the effects of declining smoking and increasing obesity on mortality in the United States over the period 2010-2040. Data on cohort behavioral histories are integrated into these projections. Future distributions of body mass indices are projected using transition matrices applied to the initial distribution in 2010. In addition to projections of current obesity, we project distributions of obesity when cohorts were age 25. To these distributions we apply death rates by current and age-25 obesity status observed in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, 1988-2006. Projections of the effects of smoking are based on observed relations between cohort smoking patterns and cohort death rates from lung cancer. We find that both changes in smoking and in obesity are expected to have large effects on mortality. For males, the reductions in smoking have larger effects than the rise in obesity throughout the projection period. By 2040, male life expectancy at age 40 is expected to have gained 0.92 years from the combined effects. Among women, however, the two sets of effects largely offset one another throughout the projection period, with a small gain of 0.26 years expected by 2040.

Suggested Citation

  • Samuel H. Preston & Andrew Stokes & Neil K. Mehta & Bochen Cao, 2012. "Projecting the Effect of Changes in Smoking and Obesity on Future Life Expectancy in the United States," NBER Working Papers 18407, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:18407
    Note: HC
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w18407.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Neil Mehta & Virginia Chang, 2009. "Mortality attributable to obesity among middle-aged adults in the united states," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 46(4), pages 851-872, November.
    2. Charles L. Baum & Shin-Yi Chou, 2011. "The Socio-Economic Causes of Obesity," NBER Working Papers 17423, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Ruhm Christopher J, 2007. "Current and Future Prevalence of Obesity and Severe Obesity in the United States," Forum for Health Economics & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 10(2), pages 1-28, September.
    4. Mehta, N. & Preston, S., 2012. "Continued increases in the relative risk of death from smoking," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 102(11), pages 2181-2186.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. O'Connell, Alison, 2014. "Longevity Trends and their Implications for the Age of Eligibility for New Zealand Superannuation," Working Paper Series 3168, Victoria University of Wellington, Chair in Public Finance.
    2. Hübler, Olaf, 2017. "Health and weight – gender-specific linkages under heterogeneity, interdependence and resilience factors," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 96-111.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Samuel Preston & Andrew Stokes & Neil Mehta & Bochen Cao, 2014. "Projecting the Effect of Changes in Smoking and Obesity on Future Life Expectancy in the United States," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 51(1), pages 27-49, February.
    2. Christopher Tencza & Andrew Stokes & Samuel Preston, 2014. "Factors responsible for mortality variation in the United States: A latent variable analysis," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 31(2), pages 27-70.
    3. Alois Stutzer & Armando N. Meier, 2016. "Limited Self‐control, Obesity, and the Loss of Happiness," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(11), pages 1409-1424, November.
    4. Julian M. Alston & Joanna P. MacEwan & Abigail M. Okrent, 2016. "Effects of U.S. Public Agricultural R&D on U.S. Obesity and its Social Costs," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 38(3), pages 492-520.
    5. Etile, Fabrice, 2014. "Education policies and health inequalities: Evidence from changes in the distribution of Body Mass Index in France, 1981–2003," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 13(C), pages 46-65.
    6. Baum II, Charles L. & Ruhm, Christopher J., 2009. "Age, socioeconomic status and obesity growth," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 635-648, May.
    7. Costa-Font, Joan & Fabbri, Daniele & Gil, Joan, 2009. "Decomposing body mass index gaps between Mediterranean countries: A counterfactual quantile regression analysis," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 351-365, December.
    8. MORIKAWA Masayuki, 2018. "Smoking, Obesity, and Labor Market Outcomes: Evidence from Japan," Discussion papers 18023, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    9. Cawley, John & Meyerhoefer, Chad, 2012. "The medical care costs of obesity: An instrumental variables approach," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 219-230.
    10. Michaud, Pierre-Carl & Goldman, Dana P. & Lakdawalla, Darius N. & Zheng, Yuhui & Gailey, Adam H., 2012. "The value of medical and pharmaceutical interventions for reducing obesity," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 630-643.
    11. Charles J. Courtemanche & Joshua C. Pinkston & Christopher J. Ruhm & George L. Wehby, 2016. "Can Changing Economic Factors Explain the Rise in Obesity?," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 82(4), pages 1266-1310, April.
    12. Andrea Moro & Sebastian Tello‐Trillo & Tommaso Tempesti, 2019. "The Impact of Obesity on Wages: The Role of Personal Interactions and Job Selection," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 33(2), pages 125-146, June.
    13. Jessica Ho & Irma Elo, 2013. "The Contribution of Smoking to Black-White Differences in U.S. Mortality," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 50(2), pages 545-568, April.
    14. Lechner, Michael, 2008. "Long-Run Labour Market Effects of Individual Sports Activities," IZA Discussion Papers 3559, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    15. von Hippel, Paul T. & Lynch, Jamie L., 2014. "Why are educated adults slim—Causation or selection?," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 131-139.
    16. Kolosnitsyna, Marina & Berdnikova, Arina, 2009. "Overweight: What Are its Costs and What Could Be Done?," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 15(3), pages 72-93.
    17. Giorgio Brunello & Pierre-Carl Michaud & Anna Sanz de Galdeano, 2008. "The Rise in Obesity Across the Atlantic: An Economic Perspective," Working Papers 2008-21, FEDEA.
    18. Gupta, Shivani & Bansal, Sangeeta, 2021. "Health Implications of Obesity: An Evidence from India," 2021 Conference, August 17-31, 2021, Virtual 315130, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    19. John Cranfield & Kris Inwood & Les Oxley & Evan Roberts, 2017. "Long-Run Changes in the Body Mass Index of Adults in Three Food-Abundant Settler Societies: Australia, Canada and New Zealand," Working Papers in Economics 17/15, University of Waikato.
    20. Rachel Griffith & Rodrigo Lluberas & Melanie Lührmann, 2016. "Gluttony and Sloth? Calories, Labor Market Activity and the Rise of Obesity," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 14(6), pages 1253-1286.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • I0 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - General
    • I1 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health
    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J18 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Public Policy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:18407. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.