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Incorporating Climate Uncertainty into Estimates of Climate Change Impacts, with Applications to U.S. and African Agriculture

Author

Listed:
  • Marshall Burke
  • John Dykema
  • David Lobell
  • Edward Miguel
  • Shanker Satyanath

Abstract

A growing body of economics research projects the effects of global climate change on economic outcomes. Climate scientists often criticize these articles because nearly all ignore the well-established uncertainty in future temperature and rainfall changes, and therefore appear likely to have downward biased standard errors and potentially misleading point estimates. This paper incorporates climate uncertainty into estimates of climate change impacts on U.S. agriculture. Accounting for climate uncertainty leads to a much wider range of projected impacts on agricultural profits, with the 95% confidence interval featuring drops of between 17% to 88%. An application to African agriculture yields similar results.

Suggested Citation

  • Marshall Burke & John Dykema & David Lobell & Edward Miguel & Shanker Satyanath, 2011. "Incorporating Climate Uncertainty into Estimates of Climate Change Impacts, with Applications to U.S. and African Agriculture," NBER Working Papers 17092, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:17092
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    Cited by:

    1. Melissa Dell & Benjamin F. Jones & Benjamin A. Olken, 2014. "What Do We Learn from the Weather? The New Climate-Economy Literature," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(3), pages 740-798, September.
    2. Rodrigo Harrison & Roger Lagunoff, 2017. "Dynamic Mechanism Design For A Global Commons," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 58(3), pages 751-782, August.
    3. Shuaizhang Feng & Michael Oppenheimer & Wolfram Schlenker, 2012. "Climate Change, Crop Yields, and Internal Migration in the United States," NBER Working Papers 17734, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Maximilian Auffhammer & Solomon M. Hsiang & Wolfram Schlenker & Adam Sobel, 2013. "Using Weather Data and Climate Model Output in Economic Analyses of Climate Change," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 7(2), pages 181-198, July.
    5. Nicholas Kilimani & Jan van Heerden & Heinrich Bohlmann & Louise Roos, 2016. "Counting the Cost of Drought Induced Productivity Losses in an Agro-Based Economy: The Case of Uganda," Working Papers 201649, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    6. Kitti Limskul, 2018. "Climate change impact on labor productivity in Thai manufacture," Asia-Pacific Journal of Regional Science, Springer, vol. 2(1), pages 195-209, April.
    7. Macours, Karen, 2014. "Adoption and adaptation in developing country agriculture," Review of Agricultural and Environmental Studies - Revue d'Etudes en Agriculture et Environnement (RAEStud), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA), vol. 95(1).
    8. Ranson, Matthew, 2014. "Crime, weather, and climate change," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 67(3), pages 274-302.
    9. Elizabeth Marshall, & Marcel Aillery, & Scott Malcolm, & Ryan Williams,, 2015. "Climate Change, Water Scarcity, and Adaptation in the U.S. Fieldcrop Sector," Economic Research Report 262203, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    10. Michael Greenstone & B. Kelsey Jack, 2013. "Envirodevonomics: A Research Agenda for a Young Field," NBER Working Papers 19426, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Sands, Ronald & Jones, Carol & Marshall, Elizabeth P., 2014. "Global Drivers of Agricultural Demand and Supply," Economic Research Report 186137, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    12. Sefa Awaworyi Churchill & Russell Smyth & Trong‐Anh Trinh, 2023. "Crime, Weather and Climate Change in Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 99(324), pages 84-107, March.
    13. Takle, Eugene S. & Gustafson, David & Beachy, Roger & Neslon, Gerald C. & Mason-D'Croz, Daniel & Palazzo, Amanda, 2013. "US food security and climate change: Agricultural futures," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 7, pages 1-41.
    14. McDermott,Thomas K.J., 2016. "Investing in disaster risk management in an uncertain climate," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7631, The World Bank.
    15. Maximilian Auffhammer & Wolfram Schlenker, 2013. "It’s not just the statistical model. A comment on Seo (2013)," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 121(2), pages 125-128, November.
    16. Pina, Gilson M. G., 2013. "Mudança estrutural e a relação entre os setores em Cabo Verde [Structural change and the sectoral linkage in Cape Verde]," MPRA Paper 46015, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • Q11 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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