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Incorporating Climate Uncertainty into Estimates of Climate Change Impacts, with Applications to U.S. and African Agriculture

  • Marshall Burke
  • John Dykema
  • David Lobell
  • Edward Miguel
  • Shanker Satyanath

A growing body of economics research projects the effects of global climate change on economic outcomes. Climate scientists often criticize these articles because nearly all ignore the well-established uncertainty in future temperature and rainfall changes, and therefore appear likely to have downward biased standard errors and potentially misleading point estimates. This paper incorporates climate uncertainty into estimates of climate change impacts on U.S. agriculture. Accounting for climate uncertainty leads to a much wider range of projected impacts on agricultural profits, with the 95% confidence interval featuring drops of between 17% to 88%. An application to African agriculture yields similar results.

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File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w17092.pdf
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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 17092.

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Date of creation: May 2011
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Publication status: published as “Incorporating climate uncertainty into estimates of climate change impacts” (co-authors Marshall Burke, John Dykema, David Lobell, Shanker Satyanath), forthcoming Review of Economics and Statistics.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:17092
Note: EEE
Contact details of provider: Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.
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