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Municipal Debt and Marginal Tax Rates: Is there a Tax Premium in Asset Prices?

  • Francis A. Longstaff

We study the marginal tax rate incorporated into short-term tax-exempt municipal rates using a unique new data set from the municipal swap market. By applying an affine term-structure framework, we are able to identify both the marginal tax rate and the credit/liquidity spread in one-week tax-exempt rates. Furthermore, we obtain maximum likelihood estimates of the risk premia associated with these variables. The average marginal tax rate during the sample period is 41.6 percent. We find that the marginal tax rate is significantly positively related to returns in the stock and bond markets. The risk premium associated with the marginal tax rate is negative, consistent with the strong contracyclical nature of aftertax fixed-income cash flows which increase in bad states of the economy as personal income and the effective marginal tax rates applied to those cash flows decline.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 14687.

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Date of creation: Jan 2009
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Publication status: published as Municipal Debt and Marginal Tax Rates: Is There a Tax Premium in Asset Prices? Abstract Full Text PDF Full Text HTML Author(s): FRANCIS A. LONGSTAFF Published: May 23, 2011 Pages: 721-751 DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.2011.01650.x
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:14687
Note: AP
Contact details of provider: Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.
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