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Analysis of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Tax Proposals

  • Gilbert E. Metcalf
  • Sergey Paltsev
  • John Reilly
  • Henry Jacoby
  • Jennifer F. Holak

The U.S. Congress is considering a set of bills designed to limit the nation's greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This paper complements the analysis by Paltsev et al. (2007) of cap-and-trade bills and applies the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model to carry out an analysis of the tax proposals. Several lessons emerge from this analysis. First, a low starting tax rate combined with a low rate of growth in the tax rate will not reduce emissions significantly. Second, the costs of GHG reductions are reduced with the inclusion of non-CO2 gases in the carbon tax scheme. Third, welfare costs of the policies can be affected by the rate of growth of the tax, even after controlling for cumulative emissions. Fourth, a carbon tax -- like any form of carbon pricing -- is regressive. However, general equilibrium considerations suggest that the short-run measured regressivity may be overstated. Additionally, the regressivity can be offset with a carefully designed rebate of some or all of the revenue. Finally, the carbon tax bills that have been proposed or submitted are for the most part comparable to many of the carbon cap-and-trade proposals that have been suggested. Thus the choice between a carbon tax and cap-and-trade system can be made on the basis of considerations other than their effectiveness at reducing emissions over some control period.

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File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w13980.pdf
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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 13980.

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Date of creation: May 2008
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:13980
Note: EEE PE
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  1. Kevin A. Hasset & Aparna Mathur & Gilbert Metcalf, 2007. "The Incidence of a U.S. Carbon Tax: A Lifetime and Regional Analysis," Discussion Papers Series, Department of Economics, Tufts University 0714, Department of Economics, Tufts University.
  2. Poterba, James M, 1989. "Lifetime Incidence and the Distributional Burden of Excise Taxes," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(2), pages 325-30, May.
  3. Gilbert E. Metcalf, 2006. "Tax Incidence," Discussion Papers Series, Department of Economics, Tufts University 0607, Department of Economics, Tufts University.
    • Fullerton, Don & Metcalf, Gilbert E., 2002. "Tax incidence," Handbook of Public Economics, in: A. J. Auerbach & M. Feldstein (ed.), Handbook of Public Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 26, pages 1787-1872 Elsevier.
  4. Newell, Richard G. & Pizer, William A., 2003. "Regulating stock externalities under uncertainty," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 45(2, Supple), pages 416-432, March.
  5. Nicholas Bull & Kevin A. Hassett & Gilbert E. Metcalf, 1993. "Who pays broad-based energy taxes? Computing lifetime and regional incidence," Working Paper Series / Economic Activity Section 142, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  6. S. Paltsev & J. Reilly & H. Jacoby & A. Gurgel & G. Metcalf & A. Sokolov & J. Holak, 2007. "Assessment of U.S. Cap-and-Trade Proposals," Working Papers 0705, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research.
  7. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521023894 is not listed on IDEAS
  8. Carlo Carraro & Barbara Buchner & Denny Ellerman, 2006. "The Allocation of European Union Allowances: Lessons, Unifying Themes and General Principles," Working Papers 2006_47, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
  9. Hoel, Michael & Karp, Larry, 2002. "Taxes versus quotas for a stock pollutant," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 367-384, November.
  10. Paul L. Joskow, 2005. "Markets For Power In The United States - An Interim Assessment," Working Papers 0512, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research.
  11. Mustafa H. Babiker & Gilbert Metcalf & John Reilly, 2003. "A Note on Weak Double Dividends," Discussion Papers Series, Department of Economics, Tufts University 0307, Department of Economics, Tufts University.
  12. Don Fullerton & Gilbert E. Metcalf, 1997. "Environmental Taxes and the Double-Dividend Hypothesis: Did You Really Expect Something for Nothing?," NBER Working Papers 6199, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Larry Karp & Jiangfeng Zhang, 2005. "Regulation of Stock Externalities with Correlated Abatement Costs," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 32(2), pages 273-300, October.
  14. Parry, Ian W. H., 2004. "Are emissions permits regressive?," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 364-387, March.
  15. Metcalf, Gilbert E., 1999. "A Distributional Analysis of Green Tax Reforms," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association, vol. 52(n. 4), pages 655-82, December.
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