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Optimal Stabilization Rules in a Stochastic Model of Investment with Gestation Lags


  • John B. Taylor


This paper considers the problem of calculating optimal policy rules to stabilize fluctuations in investment in an economy where firms' investment behavior can be described by a dynamic optimization model. In the optimization model, the dynamics of investment are generated by heterogeneous gestation lags between the start and completion of capital projects, rather than by adjustment costs in the installation of capital. A procedure is derived for calculating policy rules for an arbitrary autoregressive process generating fluctuations in firms sales. Through stochastic simulation we investigate the effects of using certain suboptimal policy rules in cases where there are constraints against using the optimal rules.

Suggested Citation

  • John B. Taylor, 1983. "Optimal Stabilization Rules in a Stochastic Model of Investment with Gestation Lags," NBER Working Papers 1225, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:1225
    Note: EFG

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Lucas, Robert E, Jr & Prescott, Edward C, 1971. "Investment Under Uncertainty," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 39(5), pages 659-681, September.
    2. Hayashi, Fumio, 1982. "Tobin's Marginal q and Average q: A Neoclassical Interpretation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(1), pages 213-224, January.
    3. Finn Kydland & Edward C. Prescott, 1980. "A Competitive Theory of Fluctuations and the Feasibility and Desirability of Stabilization Policy," NBER Chapters,in: Rational Expectations and Economic Policy, pages 169-198 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. John B. Taylor, 1982. "The Swedish Investment Funds System as a Stabilization Rule," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 13(1), pages 57-106.
    5. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January.
    6. Lawrence H. Summers, 1981. "Taxation and Corporate Investment: A q-Theory Approach," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 12(1), pages 67-140.
    7. Chow, Gregory C., 1980. "Econometric policy evaluation and optimization under rational expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 47-59, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Robert J. Gordon & John Veitch, 1986. "Fixed Investment in the American Business Cycle, 1919-83," NBER Chapters,in: The American Business Cycle: Continuity and Change, pages 267-358 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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