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Optimal Stabilization Rules in a Stochastic Model of Investment with Gestation Lags

  • John B. Taylor

This paper considers the problem of calculating optimal policy rules to stabilize fluctuations in investment in an economy where firms' investment behavior can be described by a dynamic optimization model. In the optimization model, the dynamics of investment are generated by heterogeneous gestation lags between the start and completion of capital projects, rather than by adjustment costs in the installation of capital. A procedure is derived for calculating policy rules for an arbitrary autoregressive process generating fluctuations in firms sales. Through stochastic simulation we investigate the effects of using certain suboptimal policy rules in cases where there are constraints against using the optimal rules.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 1225.

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Date of creation: Nov 1983
Date of revision:
Publication status: published as Taylor, John B. "Optimal Stabilization Rules in a Stochastic Model of Investments with Gestation Lags." Studies in Econometrics, Time Series, & Multivariate Statistics, ed. by Samuel Karlin, Takeshi Amemiya, Leo Goodman, (Academic Press, 1983), pp. 207-226.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:1225
Note: EFG
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  1. Fumio Hayashi, 1981. "Tobin's Marginal q and Average a : A Neoclassical Interpretation," Discussion Papers 457, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
  2. Lucas, Robert E, Jr & Prescott, Edward C, 1971. "Investment Under Uncertainty," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 39(5), pages 659-81, September.
  3. Finn Kydland & Edward C. Prescott, 1980. "A Competitive Theory of Fluctuations and the Feasibility and Desirability of Stabilization Policy," NBER Chapters, in: Rational Expectations and Economic Policy, pages 169-198 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January.
  5. John B. Taylor, 1982. "The Swedish Investment Funds System as a Stabilization Rule," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 13(1), pages 57-106.
  6. Lawrence H. Summers, 1981. "Taxation and Corporate Investment: A q-Theory Approach," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 12(1), pages 67-140.
  7. Chow, Gregory C., 1980. "Econometric policy evaluation and optimization under rational expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 47-59, May.
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