Minimalist economists stubbornly resist Charles Kindleberger's characterization of investor expectations in a financial bubble as "irrational." This paper seeks to resolve the controversy by imbedding Kindleberger's well-researched, impressionistic theory of financial crises into an expanded, but still-minimalist model of rational expectations. Introducing the concepts of malicious disinformation and rational overpromotion creates an informational environment in which it is time-consuming and costly to distinguish fact from fiction. Rationality still requires that expectations and market fundamentals move together over long periods of time, but dishonorable overpromoters can earn substantial profits in the interim.
|Date of creation:||Oct 2004|
|Publication status:||published as Kane, Edward J. "Charles Kindleberger: An Impressionist In A Minimalist World," Atlantic Economic Journal, v33(1,Mar), 2005, 35-42.|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.|
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- Garber, Peter M, 1990. "Famous First Bubbles," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 35-54, Spring.
- Arrow, Kenneth J, 1982. "Risk Perception in Psychology and Economics," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 20(1), pages 1-9, January.
- Stephen F. Le Roy, 2004. "Rational Exuberance," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 42(3), pages 783-804, September.
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