IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/1071.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Is Optimism Good in a Keynesian Economy?

Author

Listed:
  • Torsten Persson
  • Lars E.O. Svensson

Abstract

Assume that an economy is in a state of Keynesian unemployment. Since production is demand-determined there are bootstraps (multiple) equilibria. Then, the more optimist agents are about the future the higher will be theur demand today and hence current production. In that limited sense optimism turns out to be unwarranted , which forces a download adjustment. Is this unwarranted optimism still good? We analyze this question by help of a general equilibrium model of a small open economy where the sequence of adjustment and readjustment is modeled as two successive temporary equilibria. The question wheter optimism is good is posed in terms of an explicit ( ex post) welfare evaluation. We fine that if the future is Walrasian, the future multiplier is unity, whereas the present multiplier is larger than unity. Then optimism increases ex post welfare. If the future has Keynesian unemployment, optimism still increases ex post welfare, as long as the present multiplier is larger than the future one. A necessary and sufficient condition for this is presented.

Suggested Citation

  • Torsten Persson & Lars E.O. Svensson, 1983. "Is Optimism Good in a Keynesian Economy?," NBER Working Papers 1071, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:1071
    Note: ITI IFM
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w1071.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Barro, Robert J & Grossman, Herschel I, 1971. "A General Disequilibrium Model of Income and Employment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 61(1), pages 82-93, March.
    2. J. Peter Neary, 1980. "Nontraded Goods and the Balance of Trade in a Neo-Keynesian Temporary Equilibrium," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 95(3), pages 403-429.
    3. Razin, Assaf, 1984. "Capital movements, intersectoral resource shifts and the trade balance," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 26(1-2), pages 135-152.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Benassy, Jean-Pascal, 1993. "Nonclearing Markets: Microeconomic Concepts and Macroeconomic Applications," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 31(2), pages 732-761, June.
    2. Goldfajn, Ilan & Silveira, Marcos Antonio, 2002. "Should government smooth exchange rate risk?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(2), pages 393-421, December.
    3. Tarlok Singh, 2007. "Intertemporal Optimizing Models Of Trade And Current Account Balance: A Survey," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(1), pages 25-64, February.
    4. van der Ploeg, F., 1987. "Rationing in open economy and dynamic macroeconomics : A survey," Research Memorandum fd411b51-f487-4dde-a0e9-6, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:1071. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.