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Money Surprises and Short-Term Interest Rates: Reconciling ContradictoryFindings

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  • John H. Makin

Abstract

This note attempts to reconcile contradictory findings regarding the impact of money surprises on short term interest rates. Expectations effects regarding anticipated monetary policy and anticipated inflation suggest a positive relationship. Liquidity and output effects of monetary surprises suggest a negative relationship. It is shown that intra-day data and end-of-period data will capture expectations effects while period average data will capture liquidity/output effects. Seemingly contradictory results are reconciled by differences in dependent variables employed by various authors.

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  • John H. Makin, 1982. "Money Surprises and Short-Term Interest Rates: Reconciling ContradictoryFindings," NBER Working Papers 0993, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:0993
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Grossman, Jacob, 1981. "The "Rationality" of Money Supply Expectations and the Short-Run Response of Interest Rates to Monetary Surprises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 13(4), pages 409-424, November.
    2. Mohsin S. Khan, 1980. "Monetary Shocks and the Dynamics of Inflation (Les chocs monétaires et la dynamique de l'inflation) (Los "choques" monetarios y la dinámica de la inflación)," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 27(2), pages 250-284, June.
    3. V. Vance Roley, 1982. "The Response of Short-Term Interest Rates to Weekly Money Announcements," NBER Working Papers 1001, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Mishkin, Frederic S, 1982. "Monetary Policy and Short-Term Interest Rates: An Efficient Markets-Rational Expectations Approach," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 37(1), pages 63-72, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Hendershott, Patric H, 1984. "Expectations, Surprises and Treasury Bill Rates: 1960-82," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(3), pages 685-696, July.

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