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Implementing Causality Tests with Panel Data, with an Example from LocalPublic Finance

  • Douglas Holtz-Eakin
  • Whitney K. Newey
  • Harvey S. Rosen

This paper considers estimation and testing of vector autoregression coefficients in panel data, and applies the techniques to analyze the dynamic properties of revenues, expenditures, and grants in a sample of United States municipalities. The model allows for nonstationary individual effects, and is estimated by applying instrumental variables to the quasi-differenced autoregressive equations Q Particular attention is paid to specifying lag lengths and forming convenient test statistics. The empirical results suggest that intertemporal linkages are important to the understanding of state and local behavior. Such linkages are ignored in conventional cross sectional regressions. Also, we present evidence that past grant revenues help to predict current expenditures, but that past expenditures do not help to predict current revenues.

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File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/t0048.pdf
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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Technical Working Papers with number 0048.

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Date of creation: Mar 1989
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Publication status: published as Holtz-Eakin D., W. Newey, and H. Rosen. "Estimating Vector Autoregressions With Panel Data," from Econometrica, Vol. 56, No. 6, (November 1988).
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberte:0048
Note: PE LS
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  1. Craig, Steven G & Inman, Robert P, 1982. "Federal Aid and Public Education: An Empirical Look at the New Fiscal Federalism," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 64(4), pages 541-52, November.
  2. Ariel Pakes & Zvi Griliches, 1982. "Estimating Distributed Lags in Short Panels with an Application to the Specification of Depreciation Patterns and Capital Stock Constructs," NBER Working Papers 0933, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. White, Halbert, 1982. "Instrumental Variables Regression with Independent Observations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(2), pages 483-99, March.
  4. Taylor, John B., 1980. "Output and price stability: An international comparison," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 109-132, May.
  5. Ashenfelter, Orley C & Card, David, 1982. "Time Series Representations of Economic Variables and Alternative Models of the Labour Market," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 49(5), pages 761-81, Special I.
  6. Shelly J. Lundberg, 1984. "Tied Wage-Hours Offers and the Endogeneity of Wages," NBER Working Papers 1431, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Nickell, Stephen J, 1981. "Biases in Dynamic Models with Fixed Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(6), pages 1417-26, November.
  8. Gallant, A. Ronald & Jorgenson, Dale W., 1979. "Statistical inference for a system of simultaneous, non-linear, implicit equations in the context of instrumental variable estimation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 11(2-3), pages 275-302.
  9. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-38, July.
  10. Hamilton, Bruce W., 1983. "The flypaper effect and other anomalies," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 347-361, December.
  11. Leamer, Edward E., 1985. "Vector autoregressions for causal inference?," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 255-304, January.
  12. Sargan, J D, 1980. "Some Tests of Dynamic Specification for a Single Equation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 879-97, May.
  13. Sims, Christopher A, 1972. "Money, Income, and Causality," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 62(4), pages 540-52, September.
  14. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-54, July.
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