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Risk factors in international financial crises: early lessons from the 2008-2009 turmoil

  • Sebastian Dullien

This paper analyses the global transmission of the recent economic and financial crisis as a function of macroeconomic factors such as per capita gross domestic product, current-account positions prior to the crisis, exchange-rate regimes, inflation prior to the crisis and financial openness. It finds that large current-account imbalances (both surpluses and deficits) were a risk factor in the current global economic turmoil. It also finds that countries that use currency boards have suffered much more from the crisis than countries with other exchange-rate regimes. Financial openness appears to have increased the risk of experiencing a deep recession, while higher inflation prior to the crisis seems to have mitigated its impact.

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File URL: http://finance-and-trade.htw-berlin.de/fileadmin/working_paper_series/wp_01_2010_Dullien.pdf
File Function: First version, 2010
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Hochschule fuer Technik und Wirtschaft, Berlin in its series Competence Centre on Money, Trade, Finance and Development with number 1001.

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Length: 19 pages
Date of creation: Jul 2010
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in Berlin Working Papers on Money, Finance, Trade and Development, July 2010
Handle: RePEc:mtf:wpaper:1001
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://finance-and-trade.htw-berlin.de

References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Prasad, Eswar & Rajan, Raghuram G. & Subramanian, Arvind, 2007. "Foreign Capital and Economic Growth," IZA Discussion Papers 3186, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  2. Sebastian Dullien, 2009. "Central Banking, Financial Institutions And Credit Creation In Developing Countries," UNCTAD Discussion Papers 193, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
  3. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 1995. "The Mirage of Fixed Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 5191, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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