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Earnings Growth versus Measures of Income and Education for Predicting Mortality

  • Harriet Orcutt Duleep

    (Research Professor of Public Policy, Thomas Jefferson Program in Public Policy, The College of William & Mary)

  • David Jaeger

    (Professor of Economics, The Graduate Center, City University of New York)

This paper begins an exploration to determine whether earnings growth, as a measure of the propensity to invest in human capital, is a valuable variable for predicting mortality. To insure its robustness and general applicability to ongoing Social Security models, the usefulness of earnings growth as a predictor of mortality will be explored in multiple time periods. This paper begins that process by reporting preliminary results for an early time period using the 1973 CPS-SSA-IRS Exact Match file. In addition to presenting preliminary results, the paper also describes how data challenges associated with the pre-1978 administrative record data on earnings and mortality are met.

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Paper provided by University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center in its series Working Papers with number wp257.

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Length: 36 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:mrr:papers:wp257
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  1. Angus S. Deaton & Christina Paxson, 2001. "Mortality, Education, Income, and Inequality among American Cohorts," NBER Chapters, in: Themes in the Economics of Aging, pages 129-170 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. John S. Greenlees & James E. Duggan & Robert Gillingham, 2007. "Mortality and Lifetime Income: Evidence from U.S. Social Security Records," IMF Working Papers 07/15, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Ken Smith & Cathleen Zick, 1994. "Linked lives, dependent demise? Survival analysis of husbands and wives," Demography, Springer, vol. 31(1), pages 81-93, February.
  4. Panis, C.W.A. & Lillard, L.A., 1996. "Socioeconomic Differentials in the Returns to Social Security," Papers 96-05, RAND - Labor and Population Program.
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