Monetary Policy and Data Uncertainty: A Case Study of Distribution, Hotels and Catering Growth
This paper is a case study of the real world monetary policy data uncertainty problem. The initial and the latest release for growth rates of the distribution, hotels and catering sector are combined with official data on household income and two surveys in a state-space model. Though important to the UK economy, the distribution, hotels and catering sector is apparently difficult to measure. One finding is that the initial release data is not important in predicting the latest release. It could be that the statistical office develop the initial release as a building block towards the final release rather than an estimate of it. Indeed, there is multicollinearity between the initial release and the retail sales survey, which would then contain the same early available information. A second finding is that the estimate of the later release is sensitive to the estimate of the average historical growth rate. This means that establishing priors for this parameter and testing for shift structural breaks should be very important.
|Date of creation:||Dec 2007|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Threadneedle Street, London, EC2R 8AH|
Phone: +44 (020) 7601 4444
Fax: +44 (020) 7601 4771
Web page: http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/externalmpcpapers/index.htm
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Anthony Garratt & Gary Koop & ShaunP. Vahey, 2008.
"Forecasting Substantial Data Revisions in the Presence of Model Uncertainty,"
Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(530), pages 1128-1144, 07.
- Anthony Garratt & Gary Koop & Shaun P. Vahey, 2006. "Forecasting Substantial Data Revisions in the Presence of Model Uncertainty," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2006/02, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
- Anthony Garratt & Gary Koop & Shaun P. Vahey, 2006. "Forecasting Substantial Data Revisions in the Presence of Model Uncertainty," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 0617, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
- Coenen, Gunter & Levin, Andrew & Wieland, Volker, 2005. "Data uncertainty and the role of money as an information variable for monetary policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(4), pages 975-1006, May.
- Gunter Coenen & Andrew T. Levin & Volker W. Wieland, 2001. "Data uncertainty and the role of money as an information variable for monetary policy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-54, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Coenen, Guenter & Levin, Andrew & Wieland, Volker, 2003. "Data Uncertainty and the Role of Money as an Information Variable for Monetary Policy," CFS Working Paper Series 2003/07, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
- Coenen, Günter & Levin, Andrew & Wieland, Volker, 2003. "Data Uncertainty and the Role of Money as an Information Variable for Monetary Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 3812, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Coenen, Günter & Levin, Andrew T. & Wieland, Volker, 2001. "Data uncertainty and the role of money as an information variable for monetary policy," Working Paper Series 0084, European Central Bank.
- Watson, P K, 1983. "Kalman Filtering as an Alternative to Ordinary Least Squares-Some Theoretical Considerations and Empirical Results," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 8(2), pages 71-85.
- Koopman, Siem Jan & Harvey, Andrew, 2003. "Computing observation weights for signal extraction and filtering," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(7), pages 1317-1333, May.
- A. C. Harvey & Siem Jan Koopman, 2000. "Computing Observation Weights for Signal Extraction and Filtering," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0888, Econometric Society.
- P.A. Tinsley & P.A. Spindt & M.E. Friar, 1980. "Indicator and filter attributes of monetary aggregates: a nit-picking case for disaggregation," Special Studies Papers 140, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Kuttner, Kenneth N, 1994. "Estimating Potential Output as a Latent Variable," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(3), pages 361-368, July.
- Tinsley, P. A. & Spindt, P. A. & Friar, M. E., 1980. "Indicator and filter attributes of monetary aggregates : A nit-picking case for disaggregation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 61-91, September. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mpc:wpaper:0019. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Bank of England Website)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.