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Modelling the Behaviour and Performance of Australian Football Tipsters

  • Matthew Amor
  • William Griffiths

The forecasting performance of newspaper tipsters who predict the outcomes of English soccer matches has recently been assessed by Forrest and Simmons (2000). In this paper we extend their work to forecasts of AFL matches by five newspaper tipsters in Melbourne, Australia. These tipsters are assessed against some simple performance criteria as well as against the forecasts from a logit model designed to predict match outcomes. We find that most tipsters satisfy simple performance criteria. However, they do not fully exploit publicly available information and only two appear to successfully use independent information relevant to match outcomes.

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Paper provided by The University of Melbourne in its series Department of Economics - Working Papers Series with number 871.

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Length: 23 pages
Date of creation: 2003
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:mlb:wpaper:871
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  1. repec:dgr:kubcen:200138 is not listed on IDEAS
  2. Klaassen, F.J.G.M. & Magnus, J.R., 2001. "Forecasting the Winner of a Tennis Match," Discussion Paper 2001-38, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  3. Gray, Philip K & Gray, Stephen F, 1997. " Testing Market Efficiency: Evidence from the NFL Sports Betting Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(4), pages 1725-37, September.
  4. Gandar, John M. & Zuber, Richard A. & Lamb, Reinhold P., 2001. "The home field advantage revisited: a search for the bias in other sports betting markets," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 53(4), pages 439-453.
  5. Forrest, David & Simmons, Robert, 2000. "Forecasting sport: the behaviour and performance of football tipsters," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 317-331.
  6. Roger Vergin, 2001. "Overreaction in the NFL point spread market," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(5), pages 497-509.
  7. Webby, Richard & O'Connor, Marcus, 1996. "Judgemental and statistical time series forecasting: a review of the literature," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 91-118, March.
  8. John Gandar & Richard Zuber & R. Stafford Johnson, 2001. "Searching for the favourite-longshot bias down under: an examination of the New Zealand pari-mutuel betting market," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(13), pages 1621-1629.
  9. Friedman, Milton, 1966. "Essays in Positive Economics," University of Chicago Press Economics Books, University of Chicago Press, edition 0, number 9780226264035, July.
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