IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/mcm/sedapp/43.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Exploring the Effects of Population Change on the Costs of Physician Services

Author

Listed:
  • Frank T. Denton
  • Amiram Gafni
  • Byron G. Spencer

Abstract

The effects of population aging on future health care costs are an important public policy concern in many countries. We focus in this paper on physician services and investigate how changes in the size and age distribution of a population can affect the aggregate and per capita costs of such services. The principal data set (unpublished, for Ontario) provides information about payments to physicians, by age and sex of patients. Using it, we derive age/cost profiles for 19 categories of physicians. Adopting an index-theoretic framework, we then use the profiles to analyse the "pure" effects of population change (historical or projected) on physician costs, and to decompose the effects into population growth effects and population aging effects. We present calculations for Ontario, for the populations of 15 industrialized countries, and for four theoretical populations.

Suggested Citation

  • Frank T. Denton & Amiram Gafni & Byron G. Spencer, 2001. "Exploring the Effects of Population Change on the Costs of Physician Services," Social and Economic Dimensions of an Aging Population Research Papers 43, McMaster University.
    • Handle: RePEc:mcm:sedapp:43
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://socserv.mcmaster.ca/sedap/p/SEDAP43.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ronald Lee & Jonathan Skinner, 1999. "Will Aging Baby Boomers Bust the Federal Budget?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 13(1), pages 117-140, Winter.
    2. Denton, Frank T. & Gafni, Amiram & Spencer, Byron G., 1995. "The SHARP way to plan health care services: A description of the system and some illustrative applications in nursing human resource planning," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 125-137, June.
    3. Lee, Ronald & Tuljapurkar, Shripad, 1998. "Uncertain Demographic Futures and Social Security Finances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(2), pages 237-241, May.
    4. Frank T. Denton & Byron G. Spencer, 1999. "Population Aging and Its Economic Costs: A Survey of the Issues and Evidence," Social and Economic Dimensions of an Aging Population Research Papers 1, McMaster University.
    5. Ronald Lee & Shripad Tuljapurkar, 1997. "Death and Taxes: Longer life, consumption, and social security," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 34(1), pages 67-81, February.
    6. Ronald Lee & Shripad Tuljapurkar, 1998. "Stochastic Forecasts for Social Security," NBER Chapters, in: Frontiers in the Economics of Aging, pages 393-428, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Frank T. Denton & Amiram Gafni & Byron G. Spencer, 2001. "Population Change and the Requirements for Physicians: The Case of Ontario," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 27(4), pages 469-485, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Frank T. Denton & Amiram Gafni & Byron G. Spencer, 2005. "Users and Suppliers of Physician Services: A Tale of Two Populations," Quantitative Studies in Economics and Population Research Reports 399, McMaster University.
    2. Frank T. Denton & Byron G. Spencer, 2009. "Chronic Health Conditions: Changing Prevalence in an Aging Population and Some Implications for the Delivery of Health Care Services," Social and Economic Dimensions of an Aging Population Research Papers 259, McMaster University.
    3. Baoping Shang & Dana Goldman, 2008. "Does age or life expectancy better predict health care expenditures?," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(4), pages 487-501, April.
    4. Galea, Sandro & Freudenberg, Nicholas & Vlahov, David, 2005. "Cities and population health," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 60(5), pages 1017-1033, March.
    5. Fu, Hwai-Hui & Tsai, Hsien-Tang & Lin, Ching-Wei & Wei, Duan, 2004. "Application of a single sampling plan for auditing medical-claim payments made by Taiwan National Health Insurance," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(2), pages 185-195, November.
    6. Frank T. Denton & Christine H. Feaver & Byron G. Spencer, 2008. "An Application of Price and Quantity Indexes in the Analysis of Changes in Expenditures on Physician Services," Social and Economic Dimensions of an Aging Population Research Papers 228, McMaster University.
    7. Brigitte Dormont & Michel Grignon & Hélène Huber, 2006. "Health expenditure growth: reassessing the threat of ageing," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(9), pages 947-963, September.
    8. Di Matteo, Livio, 2005. "The macro determinants of health expenditure in the United States and Canada: assessing the impact of income, age distribution and time," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 23-42, January.
    9. Mehrdad Roham & Anait R. Gabrielyan & Norman P. Archer & Michel L. Grignon & Byron G. Spencer, 2014. "The Impact Of Technological Intensity Of Service Provision On Physician Expenditures: An Exploratory Investigation," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(10), pages 1224-1241, October.
    10. Papachristos, George & Adamides, Emmanuel, 2016. "A retroductive systems-based methodology for socio-technical transitions research," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 1-14.
    11. Hwai-Hui Fu & Dennis Lin & Hsien-Tang Tsai & Duan Wei, 2009. "Applying lot-by-lot double sampling plan to reform Taiwan National Health Insurance auditing system," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 43(4), pages 571-584, July.
    12. Sarma, Sisira & Simpson, Wayne, 2007. "A panel multinomial logit analysis of elderly living arrangements: Evidence from aging in Manitoba longitudinal data, Canada," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 65(12), pages 2539-2552, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Frank T. Denton & Byron G. Spencer, 1998. "Economic Costs of Population Aging," Quantitative Studies in Economics and Population Research Reports 339, McMaster University.
    2. Samir Soneji & Gary King, 2012. "Statistical Security for Social Security," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 49(3), pages 1037-1060, August.
    3. Frank T. Denton & Byron G. Spencer, 1999. "Population Aging and Its Costs: A Survey of the Issues and Evidence," Department of Economics Working Papers 1999-03, McMaster University.
    4. Zhang, Junsen & Zhang, Jie & Lee, Ronald, 2001. "Mortality decline and long-run economic growth," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(3), pages 485-507, June.
    5. Ronald D. Lee & Michael W. Anderson & Shripad Tuljapurkar, 2003. "Stochastic Forecasts of the Social Security Trust Fund," Working Papers wp043, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
    6. Jagadeesh Gokhale & Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 2002. "Social Security's Treatment of Postwar Americans. How Bad Can It Get?," NBER Chapters, in: The Distributional Aspects of Social Security and Social Security Reform, pages 207-262, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Alan J. Auerbach & Ronald Lee, 2009. "Notional Defined Contribution Pension Systems in a Stochastic Context: Design and Stability," NBER Chapters, in: Social Security Policy in a Changing Environment, pages 43-68, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Li, Hongbin & Zhang, Jie & Zhang, Junsen, 2007. "Effects of longevity and dependency rates on saving and growth: Evidence from a panel of cross countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 138-154, September.
    9. Ronald Lee & Timothy Miller & Michael Anderson, 2004. "Stochastic Infinite Horizon Forecasts for Social Security and Related Studies," NBER Working Papers 10917, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Michael Anderson & Shirpad Tuljapurkar & Ronald D. Lee, 2001. "Chances are...Stochastic Forecasts of the Social Security Trust Fund and Attempts to Save It," Working Papers wp008, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
    11. Martin S. Feldstein & Jeffrey B. Liebman, 2002. "The Distributional Effects of an Investment-Based Social Security System," NBER Chapters, in: The Distributional Aspects of Social Security and Social Security Reform, pages 263-326, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Bryan Graham, 2003. "Longevity and Life‐cycle Savings," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 105(3), pages 319-338, September.
    13. Malick Souare, 2003. "Macroeconomic Implications of Population Aging and Public Pensions," Social and Economic Dimensions of an Aging Population Research Papers 100, McMaster University.
    14. Joseph J. Doyle, Jr., 2007. "Returns to Local-Area Health Care Spending: Using Health Shocks to Patients Far From Home," NBER Working Papers 13301, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Lee, R., 2016. "Macroeconomics, Aging, and Growth," Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, in: Piggott, John & Woodland, Alan (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 59-118, Elsevier.
    16. Keith Blackburn & Niloy Bose & M. Emranul Haque, 2011. "Public Expenditures, Bureaucratic Corruption And Economic Development," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 79(3), pages 405-428, June.
    17. Jonathan Skinner, 2009. "Comment on "Trends in Prescription Drug Use by the Disabled Elderly"," NBER Chapters, in: Developments in the Economics of Aging, pages 312-316, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Antoine Bommier & Bertrand Villeneuve, 2012. "Risk Aversion and the Value of Risk to Life," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 79(1), pages 77-104, March.
    19. Xinxin Wang & Jingjing Hong & Pengpeng Fan & Shidan Xu & Zhixian Chai & Yubo Zhuo, 2021. "Is China’s urban–rural difference in population aging rational? An international comparison with key indicators," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52(3), pages 1866-1891, September.
    20. Douglas W. Elmendorf & Louise Sheiner, 2000. "Should America save for its old age? Population aging, national saving, and fiscal policy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2000-03, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    aging; population change; physicians; health care costs;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I11 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Analysis of Health Care Markets
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mcm:sedapp:43. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/demcmca.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.