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Modelling New Zealand COVID-19 Infection Rate, and the Efficacy of Social Distancing Policy


  • Weshah Razzak

    (School of Economics and Finance, Massey University, Palmerston North)


We fit the Gompertz curve to the New Zealand actual COVID 19 total infection cases from Feb 28, 2020 to Mar 27, 2020 then make projections under two scenarios. The first scenario is an effective lockdown of the country and a second scenario of a less effective lockdown scenario. The difference between the two scenarios is that the growth rate of infections is reduced faster and sooner under strict social distancing policy. We show that the Gompertz curve fits the data very well, and the projections of the two scenarios differ significantly. Social distancing by enforced lockdown reduces the infection rate significantly.

Suggested Citation

  • Weshah Razzak, 2020. "Modelling New Zealand COVID-19 Infection Rate, and the Efficacy of Social Distancing Policy," Discussion Papers 2004, School of Economics and Finance, Massey University, New Zealand.
  • Handle: RePEc:mas:dpaper:2004

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Michael Greenstone & Vishan Nigam, 2020. "Does Social Distancing Matter?," Working Papers 2020-26, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.
    2. S. Olshansky & Bruce Carnes, 1997. "Ever since gompertz," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 34(1), pages 1-15, February.
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    More about this item


    Gompertz curve; COVID 19; Social Distancing; New Zealand;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C90 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - General


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