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When Allais meets Ulysses: Dynamic Consistency and the Certainty Effect

  • Antoine Nebout
  • Dimitri Dubois

We report experimental findings about subjects’ behavior in dynamic decision problems involving multistage lotteries with different timings of resolution of uncertainty. Our within subject design allows us to study violations of the independence axiom in the light of the dynamic axioms' ones : dynamic consistency, consequentialism and reduction of compound lotteries.

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File URL: http://www.lameta.univ-montp1.fr/Documents/DR2009-30.pdf
File Function: Revised version, 2012
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by LAMETA, Universtiy of Montpellier in its series Working Papers with number 09-30.

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Length: 8 pages
Date of creation: Dec 2009
Date of revision: Sep 2012
Handle: RePEc:lam:wpaper:09-30
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Web page: http://www.lameta.univ-montp1.fr/

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  1. Cubitt, Robin P & Starmer, Chris & Sugden, Robert, 1998. "Dynamic Choice and the Common Ratio Effect: An Experimental Investigation," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(450), pages 1362-80, September.
  2. Uzi Segal, 1989. "Two-Stage Lotteries Without the Reduction Axiom," UCLA Economics Working Papers 552, UCLA Department of Economics.
  3. Machina, Mark J, 1989. "Dynamic Consistency and Non-expected Utility Models of Choice under Uncertainty," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 27(4), pages 1622-68, December.
  4. Kahneman, Daniel & Tversky, Amos, 1979. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(2), pages 263-91, March.
  5. Karni, Edi & Schmeidler, David, 1991. "Atemporal dynamic consistency and expected utility theory," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 401-408, August.
  6. Beattie, Jane & Loomes, Graham, 1997. "The Impact of Incentives upon Risky Choice Experiments," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 14(2), pages 155-68, March.
  7. Volij, Oscar, 1994. "Dynamic consistency, consequentialism and reduction of compound lotteries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 121-129, October.
  8. Volij, Oscar, 1994. "Dynamic Consistency, Consequentialism and The Reduction of Compound Lotteries," Staff General Research Papers 10569, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
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