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Dynamic Choice and Timing-Independence: an experimental investigation

  • John Hey
  • Massimo Paradiso.

Timing-independence implies that individuals are indifferent between a sequential choice problem and a planned choice problem which are strategically equivalent except for the timing of resolution of the uncertainty. This paper reports an experiment in which we investigate whether the timing of resolution of the uncertainty affects individual preferences. We elicit individual preferences for three strategically equivalent decisions problems. The experimental results suggest that timing- independence is an inappropriate assumption of individual preferences. The paper discusses possible implications of such findings.

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File URL: http://www.york.ac.uk/media/economics/documents/discussionpapers/1999/9926.pdf
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Paper provided by Department of Economics, University of York in its series Discussion Papers with number 99/26.

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Handle: RePEc:yor:yorken:99/26
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  1. Ronald Harstad, 2000. "Dominant Strategy Adoption and Bidders' Experience with Pricing Rules," Experimental Economics, Springer, vol. 3(3), pages 261-280, December.
  2. Machina, Mark J., 1984. "Temporal risk and the nature of induced preferences," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 199-231, August.
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  4. H. M. Shefrin & Richard Thaler, 1977. "An Economic Theory of Self-Control," NBER Working Papers 0208, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  7. Di Mauro, Carmela & Maffioletti, Anna, 1996. "An Experimental Investigation of the Impact of Ambiguity on the Valuation of Self-Insurance and Self-Protection," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 13(1), pages 53-71, July.
  8. David M Kreps & Evan L Porteus, 1978. "Temporal Resolution of Uncertainty and Dynamic Choice Theory," Levine's Working Paper Archive 625018000000000009, David K. Levine.
  9. Schmeidler, D. & Karni, E., 1990. "A Temporal Dynamic Consistency And Expected Utility Theory," Papers 39-90, Tel Aviv.
  10. Kreps, David M. & Porteus, Evan L., 1979. "Temporal von neumann-morgenstern and induced preferences," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 81-109, February.
  11. Karni, E. & Safra, Z., 1988. "Behaviorally Consistent Optimal Stopping Rules," Papers 9-88, Tel Aviv.
  12. Chew, Soo Hong & Epstein, Larry G, 1989. "The Structure of Preferences and Attitudes towards the Timing of the Resolution of Uncertainty," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 30(1), pages 103-17, February.
  13. Carmela Di Mauro & Anna Maffioletti, . "The Impact of Ambiguity on the Valuation of Self-Insurance and Self-Protection," Discussion Papers 94/25, Department of Economics, University of York.
  14. Machina, Mark J, 1989. "Dynamic Consistency and Non-expected Utility Models of Choice under Uncertainty," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 27(4), pages 1622-68, December.
  15. Hammond, P.J. & , ., 1987. "Consequentialist foundations for expected utility," CORE Discussion Papers 1987016, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  16. Cubitt, Robin P, 1996. "Rational Dynamic Choice and Expected Utility Theory," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 48(1), pages 1-19, January.
  17. Cubitt, Robin P & Starmer, Chris & Sugden, Robert, 1998. "Dynamic Choice and the Common Ratio Effect: An Experimental Investigation," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(450), pages 1362-80, September.
  18. Loewenstein, George, 1996. "Out of Control: Visceral Influences on Behavior," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 65(3), pages 272-292, March.
  19. Epstein, Larry G, 1980. "Decision Making and the Temporal Resolution of Uncertainty," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 21(2), pages 269-83, June.
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