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Real Options and Signaling in Strategic Investment Games

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  • Takahiro Watanabe

    () (Department of Business Administration, Tokyo Metropolitan University)

Abstract

A game in which an incumbent and an entrant decide the timings of entries into a new market is investigated. The profit flows involve two uncertain factors: (1) the basic level of the demand of the market observed only by the incumbent and (2) the fluctuation of the profit flow described by a geometric Brownian motion that is common to both firms. The optimal timing for the incumbent, who privately knows the high demand, is earlier than that for the low-demand incumbent. This earlier entrance, however, reveals the information of the high demand to the entrant, so that the entrant observing the timing of the incumbent would accelerate the its own timing of the investment that reduces the monopolistic profit of the incumbent. Therefore, the high-demand incumbent may delay the timing of the investment in order to hide the information strategically. The equilibria of this signaling game are characterized, and the conditions for the manipulative revelation are investigated. The values of both firms are compared with the case of complete information.

Suggested Citation

  • Takahiro Watanabe, 2012. "Real Options and Signaling in Strategic Investment Games," KIER Working Papers 809, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
  • Handle: RePEc:kyo:wpaper:809
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    File URL: http://www.kier.kyoto-u.ac.jp/DP/DP809.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Grenadier, Steven R. & Wang, Neng, 2005. "Investment timing, agency, and information," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(3), pages 493-533, March.
    2. Shibata, Takashi, 2009. "Investment timing, asymmetric information, and audit structure: A real options framework," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 903-921, April.
    3. Huisman, K.J.M. & Kort, P.M., 1999. "Effects of Strategic Interactions on the Option Value of Waiting," Discussion Paper 1999-92, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    4. Shibata, Takashi & Nishihara, Michi, 2010. "Dynamic investment and capital structure under manager-shareholder conflict," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 158-178, February.
    5. Morellec, Erwan & Schürhoff, Norman, 2011. "Corporate investment and financing under asymmetric information," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(2), pages 262-288, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Real Option; Investment Timing; Signaling; Asymmetric Information; Game Theory;

    JEL classification:

    • G31 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Capital Budgeting; Fixed Investment and Inventory Studies
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • C73 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Stochastic and Dynamic Games; Evolutionary Games

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