IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/kyo/wpaper/570.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

A Forward Projection of the Cross-Country Income Distribution

Author

Listed:
  • Costas Azariadis

    (Department of Economics, University of California Los Angeles)

  • John Stachurski

    (Institute of Economic Research, Kyoto University)

Abstract

This paper proposes and implements a method to predict evolution of the crosscountry income distribution from a nonconvex growth model with unbounded productivity shocks, fitted to panel data by threshold autoregresion. We estimate the stochastic kernel of the process, and define inducively all future distributions as a norm-convergent sequence in the function space L1. Elements of the sequence are calculated using Monte Carlo simulation. Our results suggest that nonlinearities in the growth process are responsible for emerging bimodality in the distribution of income, but that such bimodality eventually peaks and declines. In the long run we predict convergence.

Suggested Citation

  • Costas Azariadis & John Stachurski, 2003. "A Forward Projection of the Cross-Country Income Distribution," KIER Working Papers 570, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
  • Handle: RePEc:kyo:wpaper:570
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Katsuyuki Shibayama, 2018. "A Simple Model of Growth Slowdown," Studies in Economics 1813, School of Economics, University of Kent.
    2. Azariadis, Costas & Stachurski, John, 2005. "Poverty Traps," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 5, Elsevier.
    3. Blackburn, Keith & Forgues-Puccio, Gonzalo F., 2007. "Distribution and development in a model of misgovernance," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(6), pages 1534-1563, August.
    4. Keith Blackburn & Gonzalo F. Forgues-Puccio, 2011. "Foreign Aid – A Fillip for Development or a Fuel for Corruption?," Development Research Working Paper Series 09/2011, Institute for Advanced Development Studies.
    5. Kraay, Aart & Raddatz, Claudio, 2007. "Poverty traps, aid, and growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 315-347, March.
    6. Riccardo DiCecio & Charles S. Gascon, 2008. "Convergence in the United States: a tale of migration and urbanization," Working Papers 2008-002, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    7. Riccardo DiCecio & Charles Gascon, 2010. "Income convergence in the United States: a tale of migration and urbanization," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 45(2), pages 365-377, October.
    8. Humberto López & Luis Servén, 2015. "Too Poor to Grow," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Ricardo J. Caballero & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (ed.),Economic Policies in Emerging-Market Economies Festschrift in Honor of Vittorio Corbo, edition 1, volume 21, chapter 13, pages 309-350, Central Bank of Chile.
    9. Sungil Kwak & Stephen C. Smith, 2013. "Regional Agricultural Endowments and Shifts of Poverty Trap Equilibria: Evidence from Ethiopian Panel Data," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(7), pages 955-975, July.
    10. Daniel J. Henderson & Christopher F. Parmeter & R. Robert Russell, 2008. "Modes, weighted modes, and calibrated modes: evidence of clustering using modality tests," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(5), pages 607-638.
    11. Park, Seonyoung & Shin, Donggyun, 2020. "Recent Changes in the Nature of Distribution Dynamics of US County Incomes," Working Paper Series 8075, Victoria University of Wellington, School of Economics and Finance.
    12. Charles D. Brummitt & Andres Gomez-Lievano & Ricardo Hausmann & Matthew H. Bonds, 2018. "Machine-learned patterns suggest that diversification drives economic development," Papers 1812.03534, arXiv.org.
    13. Fotopoulos, Georgios, 2006. "Nonparametric analysis of regional income dynamics: The case of Greece," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 91(3), pages 450-457, June.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kyo:wpaper:570. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iekyojp.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chiaki Hara (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iekyojp.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.