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Firm Exit and Exchange Rates: An Examination with Turkish Firm-Level Data

Listed author(s):
  • Nazli Karamollaoglu

    ()

    (MEF University, Turkey)

  • M. Ege Yazgan

    ()

    (Istanbul Bilgi University)

Micro-level empirical research has begun to obtain important results on the effects of currency variations on firms' survival. To date, the literature has lacked detailed analysis of the effects of exchange rates on firms' survival behavior in emerging markets due to a scarcity of firm level information. Using a unique firm-level dataset, we test the impact of currency appreciation on the survival behavior of Turkish firms in manufacturing industries for 2002-2009. The results suggest that real exchange rate appreciation decreases the probability of survival in manufacturing industries. We also find that high (low) productivity firms have higher (lower) probability of survival than low (high) productivity firms as a result of domestic exchange rate appreciation. This evidence indicates that economic events/policies leading to appreciation in domestic currency should be cautiously managed, especially in a resource constrained emerging market economy such as Turkey.

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File URL: http://eaf.ku.edu.tr/sites/eaf.ku.edu.tr/files/erf_wp_1411.pdf
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Paper provided by Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum in its series Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers with number 1411.

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Length: 28 pages
Date of creation: Mar 2014
Handle: RePEc:koc:wpaper:1411
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  1. William Greene, 2001. "Fixed and Random Effects in Nonlinear Models," Working Papers 01-01, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
  2. Feenstra, Robert C., 1989. "Symmetric pass-through of tariffs and exchange rates under imperfect competition: An empirical test," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1-2), pages 25-45, August.
  3. Marc J. Melitz, 2003. "The Impact of Trade on Intra-Industry Reallocations and Aggregate Industry Productivity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(6), pages 1695-1725, November.
  4. Andrew B. Bernard & J. Bradford Jensen, 2004. "Why Some Firms Export," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(2), pages 561-569, May.
  5. Tomlin, Ben, 2014. "Exchange rate fluctuations, plant turnover and productivity," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 12-28.
  6. Asaf Akat & Ege Yazgan, 2013. "Observations on Turkey’s Recent Economic Performance," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 41(1), pages 1-27, March.
  7. Bergin, Paul R. & Feenstra, Robert C., 2000. "Staggered price setting, translog preferences, and endogenous persistence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 657-680, June.
  8. Sourafel Girma & David Greenaway & Richard Kneller, 2004. "Does Exporting Increase Productivity? A Microeconometric Analysis of Matched Firms," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(5), pages 855-866, November.
  9. Roberts, Mark J & Tybout, James R, 1997. "The Decision to Export in Colombia: An Empirical Model of Entry with Sunk Costs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(4), pages 545-564, September.
  10. Loretta Fung, 2008. "Large real exchange rate movements, firm dynamics, and productivity growth," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 41(2), pages 391-424, May.
  11. Jen Baggs & Eugene Beaulieu & Loretta Fung, 2009. "Firm survival, performance, and the exchange rate," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 42(2), pages 393-421, May.
  12. Li, Hongbin & Ma, Hong & Xu, Yuan, 2015. "How do exchange rate movements affect Chinese exports? — A firm-level investigation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(1), pages 148-161.
  13. John Baldwin & Beiling Yan, 2012. "Export Market Dynamics and Plant-Level Productivity: Impact of Tariff Reductions and Exchange-Rate Cycles," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 114(3), pages 831-855, September.
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