IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/jic/wpaper/56.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Conflict Analysis in Virtual States (CAVS): A New Experimental Method Based on the Extensive Use of Multi-Agent Simulation (MAS) and Geographical Information System (GIS)

Author

Listed:
  • Sakamoto, Takuto

Abstract

Conflict Analysis in Virtual States (CAVS) offers a fresh approach to analyzing civil conflicts, which also has significant potential for policy application. This approach, made possible by the use of two computer-based methods comprising multi-agent simulation (MAS) and a geographical information system (GIS), basically consists of observing and analyzing simulated dynamics of civil conflicts. Characteristically, these simulations are run in ‘realistic virtual states,’ which are constructed virtually but reflect some of the defining characteristics of corresponding sovereign states that exist in the real world. In short, controlled pseudo-experiments concerning civil conflicts are conducted in a virtual environment that sufficiently approximates the empirical reality. This working paper introduces CAVS and reports on its latest developments. First, the paper gives an overview of CAVS and its two major components: a MAS model of virtual states and GIS datasets on actual states (e.g., demographic distribution, distribution of ethnic groups, etc.). This overview is followed by some illustrative examples of simulation runs conducted in several virtual states that approximate existing states in Northeast Africa (Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, and the Sudan). The paper then details the substantial improvement and extension that the CAVS platform is now undergoing. This ongoing development includes: restructuring and unification of the GIS datasets; introduction of a much-strengthened and more flexible interface between the GIS data and the MAS model; and a substantial extension of the MAS model itself, particularly in its coverage of international and transnational factors. Lastly, the paper describes several research projects currently underway, such as investigations into the effects on civil conflicts of a variety of external influences and interventions. Firmly based on the extended CAVS platform, these projects have clear policy implications.

Suggested Citation

  • Sakamoto, Takuto, 2013. "Conflict Analysis in Virtual States (CAVS): A New Experimental Method Based on the Extensive Use of Multi-Agent Simulation (MAS) and Geographical Information System (GIS)," Working Papers 56, JICA Research Institute.
  • Handle: RePEc:jic:wpaper:56
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10685/111
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://jicari.repo.nii.ac.jp/?action=repository_uri&item_id=665&file_id=9&file_no=1
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Walter, Barbara F., 1997. "The Critical Barrier to Civil War Settlement," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 51(03), pages 335-364, June.
    2. repec:cup:apsrev:v:97:y:2003:i:01:p:75-90_00 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Paul Collier & Anke Hoeffler, 2004. "Greed and grievance in civil war," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 56(4), pages 563-595, October.
    4. repec:cup:apsrev:v:104:y:2010:i:03:p:415-429_00 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Nils B. Weidmann & Jan Ketil Roslashd & Lars-Erik Cederman, 2010. "Representing ethnic groups in space: A new dataset," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 47(4), pages 491-499, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    civil conflicts ; Africa; multi-agent (agent-based) simulation (MAS) ; geographical ; policy experiments;

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:jic:wpaper:56. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Japan International Cooperation Agency Library). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/jicgvjp.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.